MiCA 2.0 coming, Swift blockchain pilot, Bitcoin building base — Fri 10 Jul

MiCA has been live for ten days — and the EU is already rewriting it. And if you want to know what it actually felt like from the inside, Kriptomat co-founder Dejan Davidović tells his story in a new podcast.

Meanwhile, markets are shrugging off US-Iran escalation, and Bitcoin is quietly building a base.

Some of the stories in today's edition:

💎 EU to reopen MiCA rules in 2027 — stablecoins and DeFi in the crosshairs
💎 17 major banks test Swift's blockchain settlement ledger
💎 Stablecoin market splits into payments and trading
💎 Bitcoin capitulation signals late-stage bear market — CryptoQuant sets $70K as the reversal threshold
💎 Wall Street shrugs off US-Iran strikes — but the margin for error is thin

— Morten

Not yet on Kaupr? Create a free account at kaupr.io/signup — and get unlimited access to news, analysis and content on kaupr.io.

The European Commission has confirmed it will launch a formal review of MiCA in 2027, with stablecoins and decentralised finance as the primary focus areas. The review follows the Commission's ongoing targeted consultation — closing in late August — that has already attracted criticism of the stablecoin reserve requirements, the ban on interest payments and the fragmented national implementation seen in MiCA's first week.

Why it matters: MiCA has been in force for less than two weeks and is already being rewritten. For operators choosing their regulatory base, the 2027 review introduces a new layer of uncertainty — and signals that the current framework is explicitly a first draft, not a final settlement.

Source: EU to reopen MiCA rules again in 2027 — Kaupr

🎧 First-hand: Solidus Labs podcast — Dejan Davidović, co-founder of Estonian exchange Kriptomat, on what it actually looks like to wind down a crypto company under MiCA — listen here

US stock index futures edged higher on Thursday after fresh US strikes on Iran prompted retaliation against Kuwait and Bahrain and Trump declared the ceasefire "over." Oil initially surged nearly 5% but retreated the following morning as markets factored in a bumpy but contained escalation path.

Why it matters: Markets are pricing in geopolitical noise, not a structural shock — for now. With the Strait of Hormuz back in play and the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve at its lowest since 1983, the margin for error is thin.

Source: Wall St futures rebound as oil retreats, investors weigh US-Iran tensions — Reuters

European equity markets opened higher on Thursday, with technology leading as investors looked past the latest US-Iran exchange. SK Hynix's Nasdaq IPO — with demand running at seven times available shares — kept the AI and memory trade front of mind.

Why it matters: European tech outperforming during a Middle East flare-up signals where institutional capital is positioned. The AI infrastructure trade is absorbing geopolitical risk in a way that energy and financial stocks are not.

Source: European stocks advance as technology sector leads — Yahoo Finance UK

Asian equity markets posted broad gains on Friday, with investors focusing on US economic resilience and the AI investment cycle rather than the Iran conflict. The moves followed Wall Street's Thursday recovery, where the Nasdaq gained 1.30% and the S&P 500 rose 0.81%.

Why it matters: Three sessions of markets absorbing escalating US-Iran conflict without sustained selling suggests institutional positioning has priced in a prolonged but contained conflict. The question is what happens if it stops being contained.

Source: Asian stocks surge as investors look past Middle East attacks — Euronext

On-chain data shows Bitcoin's short-term holder realised price has fallen to approximately $79,000, meaning a large cohort of recent buyers now sits on unrealised losses. Historically, sustained periods where spot price trades below this threshold have marked the late stages of bear markets rather than the beginning of new ones.

Why it matters: Capitulation from short-term holders — not long-term conviction sellers — has been the defining characteristic of every Bitcoin cycle bottom since 2015. The current pattern fits.

Source: Bottom building in progress: analysts say Bitcoin holder capitulation signals late-stage bear market — The Block

CryptoQuant's weekly report argues that Bitcoin's bounce from $58,000 to $63,000 fits the pattern of a bear market rally rather than a structural trend change. Key indicators remain in territory consistent with continued consolidation, and the firm sets $70,000 as the threshold above which evidence would shift toward a new bull phase.

Why it matters: The distinction between a bear market recovery and a trend reversal matters for position sizing. CryptoQuant's $70,000 threshold gives investors a concrete level to watch rather than a directional opinion to trade against.

Source: CryptoQuant: Bitcoin rebound is bear market recovery, not trend reversal — The Block

New Dune Analytics data shows the stablecoin market has bifurcated: USDC dominates on-chain payments and settlement, while USDT retains its grip on trading and speculation. USDC handles a far higher proportion of small, frequent payments, while USDT skews toward large, infrequent transfers typical of exchange activity.

Why it matters: A stablecoin market that splits by use case rather than competing head-to-head is a more stable long-term outcome — and creates clearer product positioning for regulated payment providers building on either network.

Source: Stablecoin market splits into payments and trading, says Dune — Kaupr

Swift has completed a pilot with 17 major global banks — including BNP Paribas, Citi, Deutsche Bank, HSBC and Standard Chartered — testing a new blockchain-based settlement ledger for cross-border transactions. The system aims to reduce settlement times from days to minutes by connecting existing Swift infrastructure to a shared distributed ledger. Swift says the pilot demonstrated that interoperability between existing correspondent banking networks and new blockchain rails is technically feasible at scale.

Why it matters: Swift processes around $5 trillion in cross-border payments daily. A blockchain settlement layer that works within Swift's existing network — rather than replacing it — is the most credible path to onchain settlement reaching mainstream banking volume.

Source: 17 major banks test Swift's new blockchain ledger — Kaupr

Thank you for reading Kaupr Today. If you find this briefing useful, please share it with a colleague or friend who should be following Nordic and European digital‑finance news more closely.

Kaupr Today now has its own home — read, listen, watch and explore at today.kaupr.io.

Wishing you a great Friday — and have a wonderful weekend.

Best regards Morten Myrstad Founder & Editor