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Welcome to Kaupr Today

Good morning and welcome to Kaupr Today!

In today’s edition:

🔷 Contrarian indicators and the Bitcoin halving cycle
🔷 Stablecoins, Bitcoin payments, and wallets
🔷 Trump, family, crypto and World Liberty
🔷 AI rivals eye valuations and acquisition
🔷 Stock exchanges and crypto exchanges join forces
🔷 Japan's XRP ecosystem keeps the faith
🔷 Nordic events and evergreen reads

Have a good read!
Morten

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Contrarian indicators and the Bitcoin halving cycle

BofA says 3 contrarian indicators mean it might be a good time to jump into the market

Bank of America's April fund manager survey shows investors are the most bearish in 10 months, with cash at a 10-month high, equity overweight at its lowest since July 2025, and growth expectations at their weakest since August 2025.

Why it matters: BofA says this extreme bearishness itself is a contrarian buy signal—when cash is high, stock exposure is low, and sentiment is grim, it often marks a good time to jump into the market, especially if oil falls (e.g., on an Iran ceasefire) and fuels a growth rebound.

Source: BofA says 3 contrarian indicators mean it might be a good time to jump into the market, Business Insider

Bitcoin moves past halfway point in halving cycle as gains trail prior cycles

Bitcoin’s current halving cycle is just over 50% complete, with about 105,000 blocks remaining until the next halving in mid-April 2028, when the block reward drops from 3.125 BTC to 1.5625 BTC and daily issuance falls from ~450 BTC to ~225 BTC.

Why it matters: Despite this tighter supply, Bitcoin is up only ~15% since the April 2024 halving (from ~$64,000 to ~$74,000), far below gains in past cycles at the same point, highlighting diminishing returns as Bitcoin matures, its market cap grows, and prices track institutional flows and macro conditions more than past retail-driven boom-bust patterns.

Source: Bitcoin Moves Past Halfway Point in Halving Cycle as Gains Trail Prior Periods, Bitcoin Magazine

Stablecoin, Bitcoin payments and wallets

Tether launches its own wallet targeting billions of users

Tether launched tether.wallet, a self‑custodial mobile wallet for USD₮ (USDT), XAU₮, USAT and Bitcoin (on‑chain + Lightning), aimed at the billions unbanked but mobile‑first. It uses human‑readable addresses like [email protected], pays fees in the transferred asset (no separate gas tokens), and abstracts away blockchains, making crypto as easy as sending a message.

Why it matters: Tether is moving from pure stablecoin issuer to a mass‑market front end, positioning USDT as a default payment/savings tool in emerging markets and challenging dominant wallets on compliance, fiat on‑ramps and real‑world usability.

Source: Tether Launches tether.wallet, the People’s Wallet, Kaupr

Trump, family, crypto and World Liberty

Trump’s crypto project under pressure as investors lose profits

Trump family-backed World Liberty Financial (WLFI) faces investor backlash after using billions of its own WLFI tokens as collateral to borrow $75 million in stablecoins on DeFi platform Dolomite, a move critics call an FTX-esque circular borrowing scheme.

Why it matters: The token has dropped ~80% from its peak, wiping out investor profits while insiders potentially control a hidden blacklist feature that could freeze funds; investor Justin Sun called it “a trap disguised as an entrance,” even as the Trump family has already profited ~$1 billion from crypto ventures.

Source: Trump’s Crypto Project Under Pressure: Investors Lose Family Profits, Kaupr

AI rivals eye valuations and aquisitions

Anthropic draws VC offers at valuations of up to $800 billion

Anthropic has received multiple VC investment offers at valuations up to $800 billion, more than double its $380 billion post-money valuation from February’s $30 billion Series G round.

Why it matters: The offers show surging investor demand as Anthropic races OpenAI, with secondary markets already pricing the company near $688 billion and VCs betting on a potential IPO later this year, despite huge infrastructure costs and growing scrutiny of frontier AI models.

Source: Anthropic Draws Offers From VCs to Invest at up to $800 Billion Valuation, Yahoo Finance (citing Reuters and Business Insider)

OpenAI buys personal finance platform Hiro as strategic acquihire

OpenAI acquired Hiro Finance, an AI “personal CFO” that managed over $1 billion in assets, as an acquihire; Hiro stops new signups now, shuts down April 20, and deletes all user data by May 13, while founder Ethan Bloch and ~10 team members join OpenAI.

Why it matters: The deal speeds up OpenAI’s push to embed financial planning directly into ChatGPT by buying specialized talent and tech instead of building from scratch, reflecting AI labs’ broader trend of acquiring vertical fintech products to turn assistants into superapps for consumer and business finance.

Source: OpenAI Buys Personal Finance Platform Hiro, PYMNTS

Stock exchange and crypto exchanges join forces

German stock exchange takes $200 million stake in crypto exchange Kraken

Deutsche Börse acquired a 1.5% stake in Kraken’s parent, Payward Inc., for $200 million, valuing Kraken at $13.3 billion; the secondary-market deal is expected to close in Q2 2026 pending regulatory approval.

Why it matters: This deepens a partnership aimed at bridging traditional and digital markets, signaling Europe’s major exchange infrastructure now sees crypto trading, custody, and tokenized assets as core growth areas and paving the way for unified liquidity for securities and blockchain-native tokens.

Source: German Stock Exchange Takes $200 Million Stake in Crypto Exchange Kraken, Kaupr

Japan’s XRP ecosystem keeps the faith

Rakuten enables XRP payments for 44M users

Rakuten Wallet is adding XRP to Rakuten Pay, allowing around 44 million users in Japan to convert Rakuten Points into XRP and spend it indirectly at over 5 million merchants via Rakuten’s payments network.

Why it matters: The integration turns one of Japan’s largest loyalty and payments ecosystems into a major on‑ramp and real‑world use channel for XRP, giving the token rare, at-scale retail payments utility rather than just exchange trading.

Source: Rakuten to Allow XRP to Be Used as Payment Method by Its 44 Million Customers, CoinDesk

Nordic events and evergreen reads

Kaupr TV Live returns Friday 24 April at 12:00 CET

Kaupr TV Live is back on Friday 24 April at 12:00–13:00 CET, kicking off a sprint of three live shows before the summer.

Linkedin Event: Kaupr TV Live returns Friday 24 April at 12:00 CET, Kaupr

Baltic Crypto Adoption Hub

Baltic Crypto Adoption Week 2026 (7–9 April) has wrapped, and all content is now available in an evergreen hub on Kaupr.
Hub: Baltic Crypto Adoption, Kaupr

Nordic Crypto Adoption Week Hub

Nordic Crypto Adoption Week 2026 (23–26 March) has wrapped, and all content is now available in an evergreen hub on Kaupr.
Hub: Nordic Crypto Adoption — Kaupr

Nordic voices on diversity in crypto

On 6 March, Kaupr brought together guests from Norway, Sweden, Denmark, and Finland for a Diversity in Crypto event.
Hub: Diversity in Crypto — Kaupr

Share Kaupr Today

Thank you for reading Kaupr Today. If you find this briefing useful, please share it with a colleague or friend who should be following Nordic and European digital‑finance news more closely. Wishing you a great Wednesday — and welcome back on Thursday morning for the next edition of Kaupr Today.

If you want to go deeper and get a more umbrella‑level view of the digital transformation reshaping finance, make sure you’re subscribed to our Future of Finance Premium newsletter.

Best regards
Morten Myrstad
Founder & Editor