Good morning!

Wall Street is debating whether this week's AI-stock selloff is a healthy reset or something more serious, with Tom Lee, JPMorgan and Eric Schmidt arguing for calm even as Elon Musk warns of a shakeout among AI neoclouds. Bitcoin slipped under $80,000 as traders de-risked ahead of this week's Fed meeting, with its next move now tied to how the AI trade reacts to Big Tech earnings. And in Europe, the ECB, Latvia and Boerse Stuttgart Group all took fresh steps toward tokenized-asset infrastructure this week.

Some stories in Kaupr Daily:

💎 Bitcoin whales are holding back even as retail deposits hit a six-month high
💎 Jordi Visser ties Bitcoin's next leg up to Big Tech earnings.
💎 Latvia targets tokenization rules for 2027, starting with commercial property.
💎 Boerse Stuttgart Group receives a DLT trading and settlement licence.

Venkat looks at Bitcoin's stalled range and Ethereum's test of its May trendline in this week's Trendline.

— Morten

Fundstrat's Tom Lee said the AI stock selloff is nearing its end, comparing the setup to Cisco's 1997 drawdown before its rally resumed. He pointed to easing Treasury yields and a potentially dovish Fed, estimating $30 trillion in AI infrastructure spending over the next 25 years. He also likes Nvidia, memory stocks and crypto.

Why it matters: Lee's comparison frames the pullback as cyclical rather than structural, a reassuring signal for investors parsing whether the AI buildout itself is at risk.

Source: Tom Lee Says AI Selloff Is Nearing Its End, Points To Setup Similar To Cisco's 1997 Rout — Yahoo Finance (via Stocktwits)

JPMorgan strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou said equity positioning has reset sharply since mid-September, with hedge funds largely unwinding elevated long semiconductor bets. He argued neoclouds are too small a slice of AI capex — about $30 billion of $1.8 trillion — to derail the cycle even if their funding model fails.

Why it matters: JPMorgan's read suggests the panic selling may be exhausting itself on positioning alone, separate from any judgment on whether AI capex itself is overbuilt.

Source: JPMorgan says AI stock selling may be nearing its limit as positioning resets — Yahoo Finance (via Investing.com)

Former Google CEO Eric Schmidt said AI "is not a bubble," citing Anthropic's 45% third-quarter revenue growth to $16.8 billion as evidence of real paying demand — he holds roughly a 1% Anthropic stake. He also flagged Anthropic's $80.7 billion first-half net loss and warned free Chinese models could win the AI race on user count.

Why it matters: Schmidt's financial stake complicates his optimism, but his point about structural revenue growth — against warnings about debt-fueled infrastructure spending — captures the core tension investors are pricing right now.

Source: Eric Schmidt Rejects AI Bubble Fears, Says Anthropic Is Growing Twice as Fast as Google Did — Yahoo Finance (via Benzinga)

Elon Musk said lenders have largely stopped financing AI data-center firms lacking revenue outside AI compute, predicting consolidation or failure among more than 200 neoclouds. SpaceX, by contrast, secured $40 billion in GPU debt financing on its investment-grade status and Starlink revenue. The warning follows a Gartner forecast that over 80% of neoclouds won't survive independently to 2030.

Why it matters: A shakeout among GPU-rental specialists would ripple into Bitcoin miners that pivoted to AI hosting, such as IREN and Core Scientific, and into the credit markets backing the wider AI buildout.

Source: Musk warns over 200 AI neoclouds face 'guppy-level death' — Cointelegraph

Retail Bitcoin deposits to Binance have nearly doubled since April to a six-month high of $10.75 billion over 30 days, per CryptoQuant data, while whale deposits fell 36% since August, from $5.9 billion to $3.8 billion. The split suggests retail investors may be using the rebound to exit at better prices while large holders stay put.

Why it matters: If whales keep sitting out a rally, retail could end up supplying most of the sell pressure on exchanges — a dynamic worth watching as Bitcoin tries to reclaim higher levels.

Source: Bitcoin Whales Hold Back as Retail Deposits Hit 6-Month High — BeInCrypto

Bitcoin fell nearly 2% to about $79,800 as traders cut risk before this week's Federal Reserve meeting, while a renewed AI-stock selloff hit Asian markets — Goldman Sachs cut its Kospi target by 25%. Ether and XRP led losses among majors. Bitcoin needs to reclaim $82,500, last week's lost floor, to restore buyer confidence.

Why it matters: This week's Fed decision — and how strongly the chair signals a December hike — is now the key swing factor for both crypto and the broader risk-asset selloff.

Source: Bitcoin slips under $80,000 as traders de-risk ahead of Fed meeting — CoinDesk

Jordi Visser said Bitcoin's next rally likely depends on a bounce in the AI trade around this week's hyperscaler earnings, with investors having already pulled much of their money out of AI bets. He pointed to December — month-end flows and the midterms — as a second window, noting Bitcoin's Sharpe ratio now outpaces flat stocks and falling bonds.

Why it matters: Visser's framing ties Bitcoin's fate directly to this week's Big Tech earnings, making the AI-stock reaction — not crypto-specific news — the thing to watch for a BTC bounce.

Source: Wall Street Veteran Jordi Visser Ties Bitcoin's Next Leg Up To Big Tech Earnings — TradingView (via Stocktwits)

ECB Executive Board member Piero Cipollone said the digital euro, set for a 2027 pilot using real transactions, could give Europe "sovereignty" over payments infrastructure now dependent on non-European providers — two-thirds of euro-area card transactions run through non-EU companies, he noted. A full rollout could come as early as 2029, pending EU legislation expected by year-end.

Why it matters: Cipollone's framing — alongside recent EU moves on tokenization and MiCA — points to Europe building its own financial-infrastructure independence rather than ceding ground on digital payments and assets.

Source: ECB official sees digital euro as key to protecting EU 'sovereignty' — Cointelegraph

Latvia's Economics Minister Viktors Valainis told CoinDesk the country could have real-world-asset tokenization rules in place by H1 2027, starting with commercial property, with government bonds also on the "priority list." A legally mandated assessment due October 1 remains unfinished, and about 40 companies are seeking MiCA licenses in Latvia.

Why it matters: A concrete Nordic/Baltic timeline for real-asset tokenization — alongside new EU-level settlement infrastructure — signals the region moving from talk to rulebooks on tokenized markets.

Source: Latvia targets tokenization rules in 2027 with commercial property in focus — CoinDesk

Boerse Stuttgart Group has become the first European exchange group to receive a DLT Trading and Settlement System licence under the EU's DLT Pilot Regime, granted by Germany's BaFin alongside ESMA and the ECB. The licence lets its Seturion platform operate as pan-European post-trade infrastructure for tokenized assets, scaling with flatexDEGIRO, Nasdaq, Societe Generale and SG-FORGE.

Why it matters: A licensed, bank-backed settlement rail for tokenized assets is the kind of plumbing that turns tokenization from pilot projects into something institutions can actually use at scale.

Source: Boerse Stuttgart Group receives DLT TSS licence — The Digital Assets Edge

[IMAGE — Venkat Hrushikesa Varri]

Venkat Hrushikesa Varri notes Bitcoin tested both boundaries of its range this week — rejected above $83,500 and below $79,700 — without a sustained breakout or breakdown. The Fear & Greed Index sits at a neutral 54, down from 71 a month ago. Ethereum, meanwhile, is testing the rising trendline from its May lows near $2,314. A reclaim of $83,500 would put the $86,700–$87,500 resistance zone back in focus, while a confirmed loss of $79,700 or Ethereum's May trendline would shift the picture toward further downside.

Source: Bitcoin Tried Both Directions. Neither Side Won. — Kaupr

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Wishing you a great Monday — and welcome back tomorrow morning for the next edition of Kaupr Daily.

Best regards Morten Myrstad Founder & Editor