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Stocks staged a sharp comeback this week, led by Microsoft's record-breaking rally. Crypto earnings didn't follow the same script — Coinbase missed, Robinhood's crypto revenue kept shrinking, and Strategy booked an $8.2 billion paper loss. The reason may be simpler than it looks: a new Wintermute report shows institutional trading hit a record 72% of crypto volume, because retail money went to stocks instead. And yet, through all of it, bitcoin's own price has quietly held its ground.

Some of the stories in today's edition:

💎 Microsoft leads a record-breaking tech rebound on Wall Street
💎 Coinbase misses Q2 earnings as crypto trading activity slows
💎 Robinhood: crypto is now only 7.6% of revenue, down from 16% a year ago
💎 Institutional crypto trading hits a record 72%, as retail rotates into equities
💎 Bitcoin gains 9% in July, but on-chain data signals weak conviction

— Morten

US stocks staged a major comeback Thursday after a Fed-fueled selloff earlier in the week, with Microsoft posting its largest single-day value gain ever after reporting record cloud revenue. The Nasdaq surged 2.8% and chip stocks rallied hard, ending a six-day losing streak driven by AI-spending worries.

Why it matters: A rebound this sharp, led entirely by one earnings report, shows how thin the line has become between "the market" and a handful of AI-linked mega-caps.

Source: Stock market news for July 30, 2026 — CNBC

US stock futures were little changed as investors balanced Microsoft's blowout earnings against lingering unease from the Federal Reserve's rate decision earlier in the week. The Fed held rates steady, but Chair Warsh's comments left little room for a near-term cut.

Why it matters: Steady futures after a huge up day suggests the rally isn't spilling into broad conviction yet — the market is still waiting to see if this is a genuine turn or a one-stock event.

Source: US stock futures steady as Microsoft offsets Fed concerns — Reuters

Coinbase's Q2 revenue missed Wall Street's expectations by roughly $150 million, driven primarily by a steep drop in trading activity across the market. The stock fell in after-hours trading despite the company highlighting record market share and growth in its non-trading businesses.

Why it matters: Coinbase has spent two years building toward becoming an "everything exchange" less dependent on trading fees — this quarter is the clearest evidence yet that the diversification still isn't happening fast enough to offset a trading slowdown.

Source: Coinbase misses Q2 earnings as crypto trading activity slows — Decrypt

Robinhood posted record Q2 revenue driven by prediction markets, options and equities, but crypto's share of that revenue has fallen by more than half over the past year. The company's overall business is thriving — crypto specifically is not.

Why it matters: This isn't a story about Robinhood struggling — it's a story about crypto becoming a smaller and smaller slice of a growing pie, even at a company that leaned hard into it.

Source: Crypto Is 7.6 Percent Of Robinhood Now — The Wolf Den

Strategy reported a Q2 GAAP loss driven by unrealized losses on its bitcoin holdings, even as the company increased its BTC stack over the quarter. The loss reflects accounting rules that mark the holdings to market price, not a change in strategy.

Why it matters: A company can keep buying and still book a massive paper loss if the price moves against it — a reminder that "still accumulating" and "still profitable on paper" are two very different claims.

Source: Strategy posts $8.2 billion loss as bitcoin holdings increase 11% during Q2 — The Block

A new Wintermute report found institutions now account for 72% of crypto spot trading on its OTC desk, the highest share on record, as retail investors remain largely absent — preoccupied instead with the stock rally. The result is a calmer, more concentrated market, with volatility down sharply from previous cycles.

Why it matters: This is the connective tissue between everything else in today's edition — crypto trading isn't just slowing on its own, retail money appears to have gone somewhere else entirely: the stock market.

Source: Institutional trading hits a record 72% as Wall Street quietens down crypto's wild swings — CoinDesk

Both BitMEX and BitMart have announced plans to shut down in recent days, with declining trading volumes cited as a central factor in each case. Neither exchange has pointed to a hack, regulatory action or single dramatic event as the cause.

Why it matters: The absence of a dramatic, named cause is itself the story — these aren't collapses, they're exchanges quietly concluding there isn't enough trading left to justify staying open.

Source: BitMEX and BitMart may be first casualties of crypto trading slump — CoinDesk

K33 Research says Bitcoin trading activity in July is on pace to be the quietest since 2023, squeezing revenue at exchanges that depend on trading fees. The firm points to thinning volumes across both spot and derivatives markets.

Why it matters: A slow month is a data point; a multi-year low is a trend — and it's the same trend showing up independently in Wintermute's data, in Coinbase's earnings, and in two exchanges' decisions to close.

Source: Bitcoin trading slowest month since 2023 — Bitcoin Foundation

Bitcoin held near $64,600 even as US stocks fell sharply earlier in the week, showing resilience that equities didn't have. But renewed Iran tensions, a hawkish tone from new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, and the stalled CLARITY Act all still threaten to push it toward $60,000.

Why it matters: Bitcoin holding steady while stocks fell — and now stocks rebounding while bitcoin still faces its own separate risks — suggests the two aren't moving in lockstep right now, for better or worse.

Source: Bitcoin price resists sell-off, but three risks threaten a drop to $60K — crypto.news

Scott Melker's The Wolf Of All Streets covers bitcoin's resilience above $64,000 even as stocks extended their post-Fed selloff, alongside the continued unwind in the AI trade, Binance's expansion into prediction markets, and expectations heading into Coinbase's earnings. His guest is Ophelia Snyder, co-founder of 21Shares.

Watch on YouTube

Bitcoin is on track for its first monthly gain since April, up over 9% for July. But spot trading volume has fallen to its lowest level in nearly three years, and weekly ETF flows have gone from $197 million to a net outflow over the past three weeks.

Why it matters: A price gain built on thinning volume and fading ETF demand is a fragile kind of gain — the move up is real, but the conviction behind it looks weaker than the number alone suggests.

Source: Bitcoin Gains 9% in July, but On-Chain Data Signals Weak Conviction — Yahoo Finance / BeInCrypto

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Wishing you a great Friday — and welcome back Monday morning for the next edition of Kaupr Daily. Kaupr Digest returns this weekend.

Best regards, Morten Myrstad Founder & Editor