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Good morning and welcome to Kaupr Today!

No edition yesterday — we were building something. More on that soon.

Today we have something worth the wait. SpaceX prices tonight. It lists tomorrow. And the most anticipated IPO in history is also the most revealing stress test yet of the new financial infrastructure we cover every day — tokenized equity, prediction markets, ETFs, crypto exchanges. Five different ways to bet on the same company. Each with a different answer to the question: what do you actually own?

Stories in today's newsletter:

♦️ Four venues, two models — the SpaceX pre-IPO trade is already live.
♦️ Crypto users have an inside lane — the IPO is twice oversubscribed through traditional channels.
♦️ BlackRock launches a space ETF with fast IPO entry for European retail.
♦️ Morningstar says SpaceX is worth half what Musk is asking.
♦️ Tokenized SpaceX shares are not real shares — but that may not matter.
♦️ Nordic pension funds face an unwanted SpaceX position — one has already said no.

Have a great read!

Morten

📖 No edition yesterday — we were building something.
Today, let's get into it.

Before SpaceX lists on Nasdaq today, four crypto venues are offering exposure through two fundamentally different structures. Bybit and Kraken offer xStocks tokens backed 1:1 by real SpaceX equity in regulated custody. Coinbase International and BitMEX offer cash-settled synthetic perpetuals with no share custody. SpaceX perpetual open interest across venues has reached $280 million. All four venues exclude US persons.

Why it matters: The same IPO is now accessible through tokenized equity, synthetic perps, ETFs, and prediction markets — each with different risk profiles and investor rights. SpaceX is the first test case for how markets price assets across multiple parallel infrastructures simultaneously.

Source: Bybit and Kraken add xStocks SpaceX tokenized equity as pre-IPO derivatives race reaches four venues — The Defiant / Converge

SpaceX's IPO is twice oversubscribed through traditional channels — most retail investors ordering through Robinhood, Fidelity, or Schwab will receive little or nothing. For crypto-native investors, the subscription process requires only USDC and a Bybit or Kraken account.

Why it matters: Crypto infrastructure is giving retail investors a genuine competitive advantage on the most anticipated IPO in history. That goes directly to the heart of what tokenization is actually for.

Source: How to buy the SpaceX IPO stock? Crypto users have an inside lane — Yahoo Finance

Kraken has launched xStocks IPO Access, letting investors in more than 110 countries — including the EEA — subscribe to SpaceX at the official offering price. Investors who receive allocations are issued SPCXx, a tokenized share backed 1:1 by actual SpaceX equity, tradeable 24/7. The service is unavailable to US, Canadian, UK, and Australian investors.

Why it matters: Kraken is building infrastructure for a new category of financial product. Every future IPO that runs through xStocks expands a distribution network that bypasses traditional brokerage entirely.

Source: Kraken launches SpaceX IPO access service through tokenized shares — Bloomingbit / Cointelegraph

BlackRock is launching the iShares Space Technologies UCITS ETF (STAR) for European investors, with a built-in IPO fast-entry mechanism that can add newly listed companies within 10 to 30 days of debut — far faster than standard index rebalancing. Space ETFs have pulled in $8 billion this year, overtaking defence ETFs for net inflows.

Why it matters: BlackRock is building a vehicle that lets European retail investors access major space-sector IPOs almost immediately after listing — through a regulated, familiar wrapper.

Source: BlackRock launches space ETF as sector pulls in $8 billion — Yahoo Finance / GuruFocus

Polymarket has launched prediction markets around the SpaceX IPO, with millions of dollars traded across contracts covering first-day valuation and whether the stock closes above its IPO price. Traders assign a 75% probability that SpaceX closes its first trading day above the offering price.

Why it matters: Prediction markets aggregate real capital and real conviction in real time. On the world's most anticipated IPO, the crowd is voting up.

Source: SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap — Kaupr analysis based on Polymarket data

Morningstar initiated coverage with a fair-value estimate of $780 billion — roughly half the $1.75 trillion IPO target. Lead analyst Nicolas Owens: "We think the company has been significantly overvalued and investors will have opportunities to buy the stock at more attractive levels after the IPO." Only Starlink is currently profitable. The xAI business burned an operating loss of $6.36 billion last year. Musk retains 85% voting control through a dual-class structure.

Why it matters: Retail investors buying through tokenized platforms, ETFs, or traditional brokers all face the same underlying valuation risk. Morningstar's analysis is not a prediction — it is a benchmark.

Source: SpaceX is worth less than half of its $1.75 trillion IPO target, Morningstar says — CNBC

xStocks — the product behind Bybit and Kraken's SpaceX offerings — are structured notes that provide synthetic price exposure, not direct ownership or shareholder rights. They work like ETFs: backed 1:1 by listed stocks, with tokens minted and burned as demand shifts. Counterparty risk exists. But the broader conclusion is nuanced: SpaceX going public is more likely to boost tokenized stocks than hurt them — xStocks was never selling scarcity, it was selling access and 24/7 trading.

Why it matters: A token backed by a listed stock is not the same as owning the stock. For most retail use cases that distinction may not matter. For institutional ones, it does.

Source: SpaceX listing should boost tokenized stocks, not bury them — Ledger Insights

Danish AkademikerPension has blacklisted the SpaceX IPO over governance concerns, citing Musk's near-absolute voting control and the related-party xAI merger. Swedish AP-funds face a different problem: as passive index trackers, they will be mechanically forced to buy SpaceX when it enters global benchmarks — unless individual savers actively opt out. SpaceX's dual-class structure contradicts foundational Nordic corporate governance norms.

Why it matters: Nordic pension savers may become involuntary SpaceX shareholders not because their fund managers chose to invest, but because an algorithm did. That is a structural question about passive investing that goes well beyond SpaceX.

Source: The SpaceX IPO: a trillion-dollar conundrum for Nordic capital and global markets — Nordic Business Journal

Thank you for reading Kaupr Today. If you find this briefing useful, please share it with a colleague or friend who should be following Nordic and European digital‑finance news more closely.

Kaupr Today now has its own home — read, listen, watch and explore at today.kaupr.io.

Wishing you a great Thursday — and welcome back tomorrow morning for the next edition of Kaupr Today.

Best regards Morten Myrstad Founder & Editor