Good morning!

AI now brings in more than half of SpaceX's revenue, as it leases data centres to companies such as Anthropic, and SpaceX says its capital spending could double this quarter. At the same time, Ken Griffin says AI is "almost certainly" in a bubble, Gartner warns that AI infrastructure may not earn back its cost, and CoreWeave's bonds trade well below face value. Bitcoin is nearing $83,000 as AI earnings lift tech stocks, while views on its outlook differ.

Some stories in Kaupr Daily:

💎 JPMorgan sees bitcoin beating stocks and gold over the next decade, with a catch💎 Bitcoin moves with the S&P 500, and an e27 writer sees that as a warning sign
💎 Options price in far more volatility than bitcoin delivers
💎 Zcash jumps 11% ahead of an upgrade

Our next live event, Impact Onchain on 4 November, looks at how hackathon work becomes real projects. It is free to join.

— Morten

Our next live event is free and online, Wednesday 4 November, 11:00–12:30 CET. Together with FirstBlock-athon Stockholm, we look at what it takes to turn hackathon work into lasting projects: funding, partners, pilots and buy-in, and blockchain beyond finance.

👉 Register for free → · See the autumn calendar →

SpaceX's revenue rose 161% to $14.6 billion in the third quarter, and its AI segment brought in more than half of it. Since merging with xAI in February, SpaceX leases spare data centre capacity to other AI companies. Anthropic pays $1.25 billion a month, and Google Cloud $920 million.

Why it matters: A large share of the leasing revenue comes from a few customers, one of them unnamed, and SpaceX has not disclosed how long the contracts run.

Source: SpaceX revenue jumps 161% as data centre deals fuel growth — Crypto Briefing

SpaceX spent about $19.6 billion on capital expenditure in the third quarter, in line with what Wall Street analysts expected. Of that, $16.4 billion went to AI, continuing the acceleration seen in recent quarters as the Grok maker builds out its data centres. The company says its capex could double this quarter.

Why it matters: SpaceX is now spending more on AI than ever, and most of its capital goes to compute rather than rockets or satellites.

Source: SpaceX says its capex could double this quarter as AI spending grows — Business Insider

Citadel founder Ken Griffin told the firm's Future of Global Markets conference in New York that investors are "almost certainly" in an AI bubble. Companies are spending heavily on AI, including on bills from Anthropic and OpenAI, without clear evidence of returns, he said. Yet AI agents have cut some research work at Citadel from weeks to hours.

Why it matters: Griffin still believes in the technology, and expects AI to lower the barriers for new companies and increase competition.

Source: Ken Griffin says AI is 'almost certainly' a bubble, but he's still a believer — Crypto Briefing

Gartner predicts that more than 80% of neoclouds, companies that rent out AI computing power, will stop operating independently by 2030. More than $3.5 trillion of AI infrastructure spending could face write-downs, as revenue from AI data centres falls short of what is needed for a profitable return.

Why it matters: "Less than half of AI revenue will be earned by providers that own significant AI infrastructure," says Gartner analyst Will Sommer.

Source: Gartner: 80% of neoclouds to lose independence by 2030 as AI infrastructure spending outpaces revenue — CRN Asia

CoreWeave's bonds due in 2031 and 2032 traded at 76.5 to 81 cents on the dollar in mid-October, with yields of 15–16%. The AI cloud provider has about $50 billion in debt, with $4.4 billion due by the end of the year. At the same time, it has a customer backlog of about $104 billion.

Why it matters: Private credit funds much of the AI build-out, and Carlyle estimates it could finance about $1 trillion of AI computing capacity.

Source: CoreWeave's debt stress tests private credit's AI financing boom — Crypto Briefing

Bitcoin rose 1.3% to about $82,700 on Wednesday morning, as strong results from SpaceX and Super Micro revived the AI trade and lifted Asian tech stocks. Zcash led the larger coins, up 11%, after developers set the activation date for an upgrade that makes payments confirm three times faster.

Why it matters: Bitcoin needs to reclaim $84,000 before the Fed meets on 27–28 October to signal renewed strength, CoinDesk writes.

Source: Bitcoin hovers around $83,000 as AI earnings revive tech, ZEC jumps 11% — CoinDesk

JPMorgan Asset Management has given bitcoin a return range in its long-term market assumptions for the first time. Its base case is 10% a year over the next decade, ahead of US large-cap stocks and gold. But the bank calls a decade-long bitcoin forecast premature and keeps it out of its core risk models.

Why it matters: JPMorgan describes bitcoin as "a high beta risk asset" that tracks growth in the global money supply.

Source: JPMorgan Sees Bitcoin Beating Stocks and Gold Over the Next Decade — BeInCrypto

Bitcoin now trades strictly as a high-beta risk asset, with a 95% correlation to the S&P 500, the author argues. Macro forces, not crypto news, drive the price, and the strongest signal is US spot bitcoin ETFs taking in a net $526.7 million on 20 October, led by BlackRock's fund.

Why it matters: For those who hold bitcoin as an asset independent of the stock market, the close link to equities is a warning sign, the author argues.

Source: Bitcoin at US$82,829: Why a 95% correlation with the S&P 500 should worry long-term believers — e27 (Source: opinion piece)

Bitcoin options on Deribit price 30-day volatility at about 38%, while the price has actually moved at around 20% over the past two weeks. "A premium 18 points above delivered volatility is either a gift or a warning," CryptoTicker writes. The volatility index says nothing about which direction bitcoin will move.

Why it matters: About $12 billion in bitcoin options expire on 30 October, with large positions on a rise to $90,000 and above.

Source: Bitcoin Price Prediction: Volatility Premium Signals a Breakout — CryptoTicker

Kaupr Today comes in two editions

More from Kaupr

Wishing you a great Wednesday — and welcome back tomorrow morning for the next edition of Kaupr Today.

Best regards Morten Myrstad Founder & Editor