SEC on a roll · NYSE goes onchain · Rate hike back on — Wed 2 Sep

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A September rate hike is suddenly the base case, and bitcoin gave back its early-week gains. The more consequential moves came from the SEC, which spent the week rewriting rules written before the internet.

💎 Traders now price a 66% chance of a rate hike this month
💎 Bitcoin's correlation with gold hits a record as its Nasdaq correlation falls away
💎 The SEC brings NYSE, Nasdaq and DTCC to the table on 24-hour trading
💎 NYSE's owner picks tZERO to build the settlement layer for tokenised stocks
💎 Twenty-one banks build a stablecoin — JPMorgan builds something else

— Morten

📅 Kaupr Event — Blockathon Stockholm: Pre-event 3 | Thursday 3 September, 11:00–12:30 CET

The first two sessions were about why. This one is also about what: the challenges teams will work on, what the days in Stockholm actually look like, and what it takes to arrive ready. Moderated by Melissa Persson and Morten Myrstad, with speakers announced shortly. Free and live on Kaupr.io and YouTube — registering gets you the reminder and the recording afterwards.

👉 Register here

A September rate hike is back on the table

Renewed US strikes near the Strait of Hormuz pushed Brent crude up 4.6% to $95.70 on Tuesday, and Wall Street closed lower for a third straight session with the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.79%. Traders now put the odds of a September rate hike at 66%, up from around 40% a week earlier. Bitcoin slipped below $77,000 as the risk-off move spread across assets.

Why it matters: Markets have spent the year positioning for cuts, and pricing a hike instead changes what every leveraged position is worth.

Source: These 3 factors are whipsawing Wall Street and bitcoin — BeInCrypto

Bitcoin's correlation with gold hits a record

K33 reported that bitcoin's 90-day correlation with gold reached an all-time high of 0.52 while its correlation with the Nasdaq fell to a yearly low. Global bitcoin ETPs absorbed 52,152 BTC in August, the strongest monthly inflow since November 2024 and a reversal from the record outflows of May and June. Average daily spot volume fell 35% last week but remains well above the July level.

Why it matters: If bitcoin stops moving with tech stocks and starts moving with gold, the reason to hold it shifts from growth exposure to something closer to insurance.

Source: Bitcoin consolidates as spot activity cools, ETF demand remains key to rally — FXStreet

Uniswap runs while the majors stall

UNI rose about 10% on Tuesday and more than 32% over the week, touching a multi-month peak near $6.00 before easing back. Solana slipped toward $100, ether stayed below $2,450 and XRP below $1.40. Total crypto market capitalisation held just above $2.7 trillion.

Why it matters: Money moving into individual tokens while the large caps stall reads differently from a market rising together.

Source: Uniswap skyrockets 32% weekly, bitcoin calms at $78K — CryptoPotato

Wall Street comes to the table on 24-hour trading

The SEC will host a public roundtable on 17 September on preparations for round-the-clock US equity trading, with panels on overnight surveillance, closing-price processes, clearance and settlement, and cybersecurity. Panelists include NYSE, Nasdaq, DTCC, BlackRock, Schwab, Citadel Securities, Jane Street and Robinhood. Chairman Paul Atkins has framed continuous trading as a way to attract global liquidity, while stressing the need for safeguards.

Why it matters: Equities are moving toward the one property crypto markets have had since the first day, which closes a gap the industry has long sold on.

Source: SEC explores crypto-style 24/7 stock trading in upcoming roundtable with NYSE and Nasdaq — Coinpedia · SEC announces agenda and panelists — SEC

A rule from the 1970s gets rewritten for blockchain records

The SEC proposed modernising its rules for transfer agents — the firms that track who owns a security — explicitly to accommodate blockchain technology and electronic communications. The proposal would let blockchains serve as official records of transactions, alongside new requirements in areas such as cybersecurity. Commissioner Hester Peirce asked whether the rule should still require names and physical addresses, or allow email and wallet addresses instead.

Why it matters: Ownership records are where tokenised securities either become real or stay a demonstration, and this is the rule that decides which.

Source: SEC proposes transfer agent rule, sets event to figure out round-the-clock U.S. trading — CoinDesk

The SEC wants proof the shares are actually there

The regulator has stepped up examinations of firms running special purpose vehicles that sell exposure to private companies, asking registered advisers to document that the vehicles hold what they claim to. The scrutiny followed rising investor complaints and heavy marketing ahead of the SpaceX and Anthropic listings. One fund sold pre-IPO SpaceX exposure and later told investors the stock had been sold before trading began.

Why it matters: Private-company exposure sold through a wrapper rests entirely on the wrapper holding the asset, and the regulator is now asking for the receipts.

Source: SEC asks investment firms to prove they have access to shares in startups — Reuters

And it wants to let more investors in

A separate SEC proposal, now under White House review, would amend the Investment Advisers Act and the Investment Company Act to allow retail exposure to private markets through registered funds and widen who can be charged performance fees. Atkins has called broadening access a question of freedom and fairness. Private offerings carry fewer disclosure requirements, which groups such as Better Markets say leaves investors exposed to more risk.

Why it matters: Private markets have been closed to most investors on the theory that they cannot assess the risk, and that theory is now up for public comment.

Source: US SEC preps plan to widen investor access to private markets — Bloomberg

ICE picks tZERO to build the settlement layer

Intercontinental Exchange, the owner of the New York Stock Exchange, will work with tZERO on the transfer-agent and broker-dealer systems needed to settle tokenised securities trades onchain for its planned NYSE-affiliated platform. ICE is also investing in tZERO's latest financing round and licensing its portfolio of 103 blockchain patents, with the size undisclosed. The two will explore using tokenised assets as collateral at ICE's clearing houses.

Why it matters: Putting a stock on a blockchain is the easy part; ownership records, settlement and collateral treatment are where the work actually sits.

Source: NYSE owner ICE taps tZERO for tokenized securities push, takes stake in firm — CoinDesk

Twenty-one banks build a stablecoin, and one builds something else

A consortium including Citi, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America and UBS plans a dollar-denominated stablecoin for the first half of 2027, timed to the GENIUS Act taking effect that January. The act's ban on issuer yield removes the incentive to compete on returns, pushing the contest toward infrastructure and settlement instead. JPMorgan is not part of the group, continuing with its own Kinexys and JPM Coin systems.

Why it matters: Public chains and permissioned networks are two different bets on where institutional money will settle, and the largest US bank has taken the other side.

Source: 21 major banks are building a stablecoin. The GENIUS Act is why. — Forkast

Memecoins are trading against tokenised equities

Robinhood Chain recorded $989 million in single-day decentralised exchange volume on Friday, with total value locked at $708 million, nearly double the month before. Memecoins paired against tokenised stocks now account for roughly a quarter of all stock-linked trading volume on the chain. One such token, paired against tokenised NVDA, grew from a $1.5 million market capitalisation on 1 August to $135 million by the end of the month.

Why it matters: Tokenised equities were meant to bring traditional assets to new investors, and their most active use so far is as the other half of a memecoin pair.

Source: Robinhood Chain hits record $989 million in daily DEX volume as TVL grows — The Block

🎧 Did you catch — Kaupr Weekly Episode 9: Life After the Premium — The Bitcoin Treasury Companies a Year On?

Close to fifteen Nordic companies announced a bitcoin treasury strategy last year. A year on, most have left quietly, and the four still standing have each attached something else to the balance sheet.

Episode also available on Spotify · Apple Podcasts

Thank you for reading Kaupr Today. If you find this briefing useful, please share it with a colleague or friend who should be following Nordic and European digital-finance news more closely.

Kaupr Today now has its own home — read, listen, watch and explore at today.kaupr.io.

Wishing you a great Wednesday — and welcome back tomorrow morning for the next edition of Kaupr Today.

Best regards Morten Myrstad Founder & Editor