Robinhood already showed its hand this week: prediction markets just overtook crypto as a revenue line. Coinbase reports tonight, and the debate isn't whether the quarter will be weak — it's whether the 44% of revenue that no longer depends on trading is enough to change the story. Meanwhile capital keeps rotating out of chips, stablecoin competition is moving past the settlement layer, and Goobit's MiCA fight just became a real court case.

Some of the stories in today's edition:

💎 Robinhood's prediction markets overtake crypto trading for the first time
💎 Wall Street analysts cut Coinbase trading-volume estimates ahead of report
💎 Nearly half of Coinbase's revenue no longer depends on trading
💎 Goobit takes its MiCA rejection to the Administrative Court
💎 Six partners line up behind the Stockholm blockathon

— Morten

Robinhood's prediction markets business generated $156 million in Q2 revenue, surpassing crypto trading's $100 million for the first time in the company's history. The milestone was driven by Rothera, Robinhood's own CFTC-licensed exchange launched in June, which eliminated revenue sharing with Kalshi.

Why it matters: The product Robinhood built its crypto reputation on is now smaller, in a single quarter, than a business that didn't exist three years ago.

Source: Prediction Markets Outpace Crypto as Robinhood Hits Record $1.31B Revenue — Tech Times

Coinbase reports Q2 earnings Thursday after the close, with Wall Street broadly expecting a soft quarter on lower trading volumes. Analysts say the more important question is Washington: Benchmark believes recent progress on the CLARITY Act's ethics provisions has materially improved the odds of Senate passage, calling it one of Coinbase's biggest potential stock catalysts.

Why it matters: When analysts treat a pending Senate vote as more market-moving than the quarter itself, it says something about how thin the line has become between Coinbase's business and US crypto policy.

Source: Investors look past expected weak Q2 earnings to focus on Coinbase's political future — CoinDesk

In Q1, subscription and services — USDC interest, staking rewards, custody fees, Coinbase One — made up 44% of Coinbase's net revenue, even during its worst trading quarter in years. Stablecoin revenue alone was a major contributor, with Coinbase capturing roughly half of all USDC economics.

Why it matters: The market still prices Coinbase almost entirely as a crypto-trading proxy, but if that share holds or grows in Thursday's Q2 numbers, the case that Coinbase has become something structurally different gets a lot harder to dismiss.

Source: Coinbase Is Quietly Becoming a Different Company — Stock Report

Barclays, Benchmark, Clear Street and Compass Point all lowered their Q2 estimates for Coinbase citing weaker spot trading. Barclays now expects roughly $152 billion in quarterly trading volume, below the Street's earlier forecast, while Clear Street cut its adjusted EBITDA estimate accordingly.

Why it matters: Four separate analysts converging on lower trading estimates, even as they stay constructive on Coinbase's non-trading revenue, shows how clearly the Street now separates "how much people are trading" from "how much money Coinbase actually makes."

Source: Coinbase hit by spot trading slump: Wall Street trims Q2 earnings expectations — crypto.news

After Finansinspektionen rejected Goobit's request to voluntarily reconsider its MiCA rejection, the Swedish exchange operator is now proceeding with a formal appeal to the Administrative Court in Stockholm. CEO Christian Ander said the company remains committed to a "constructive and responsible" process, while acknowledging that neither the outcome nor the timeline can be predicted with certainty.

Why it matters: This moves Goobit's case from an internal regulatory dispute into an actual judicial proceeding — a genuine test of whether a Swedish court will second-guess Finansinspektionen's reading of MiCA.

Source: Goobit takes MiCA rejection to court after second refusal in Sweden — Kaupr

FirstBlock-athon, the first blockathon in the Nordics, has added six new partner organizations ahead of its September event in Stockholm. The partnerships broaden the range of institutions backing an event built around real business problems rather than invented hackathon challenges.

Why it matters: Partner support at this stage signals the event is being treated as infrastructure for the Nordic blockchain scene, not just a one-off gathering.

Source: Six partners line up behind the blockathon in Stockholm — Kaupr

Visa CEO Ryan McInerney declined to frame the newly launched Open USD as a competitive threat to Circle's USDC or Tether's USDT, telling investors "our role is not to pick winners." Visa's strategy remains "multi-coin, multi-chain," supporting whichever stablecoins its bank and fintech clients choose to use.

Why it matters: By refusing to bet on a single stablecoin, Visa is positioning itself to profit no matter which token wins — a stance Mizuho analysts have described as making Visa the "stablecoin of stablecoins."

Source: Visa CEO sidesteps labeling Open USD a challenger to Tether and USDC: 'Our role is not to pick winners' — The Block

Wirex Group CEO Pavel Matveev told BeInCrypto that while Visa, Mastercard and Stripe are building stablecoin settlement infrastructure, the larger commercial opportunity lies in owning the customer-facing layer — cards, foreign exchange, and the account itself. Wirex's banking-as-a-service business reached $1 billion in annualized settlement volume within 131 days of its November 2025 launch.

Why it matters: Settlement networks move the money, but Matveev's point is that interchange fees, FX spreads and account relationships are where the actual revenue sits — and that layer is still wide open.

Source: Stablecoin Banking Competition Expands Beyond Settlement — BeInCrypto

SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics and Micron collectively lost hundreds of billions in market value as a chip-sector selloff swept from Wall Street into Asia and Europe. Analysts described the move less as weakening AI demand and more as investors repricing expectations after an exceptionally strong rally.

Why it matters: When the world's largest memory-chip makers lose hundreds of billions in days despite strong underlying demand, it's a reminder of how much of the AI trade's value has been running on momentum rather than fundamentals.

Source: Chip stocks shed more than $1 trillion as selloff hits companies powering AI boom — CNBC

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Wishing you a great Thursday — and welcome back tomorrow morning for the next edition of Kaupr Daily.

Best regards, Morten Myrstad Founder & Editor