Welcome to Kaupr Today

Good morning. Bitcoin is stuck in a choppy range, but leverage and sentiment are heating up again as traders and U.S. institutions quietly lean long while offshore desks de‑risk and retail keeps buying the dip. At the same time, policymakers are drawing sharper lines around digital money, from Washington’s stablecoin fight to Beijing’s new red lines, even as Norway stages a rare double feature: a cautious central‑bank view on stablecoins alongside a new “Satoshi address” putting Bitcoin directly into the national money narrative. Add Musk’s X moving into trading, OpenAI doubling down on open‑source agents, Stripe’s valuation test and K33’s surging Nordic crypto business, and you have a week where both the market structure and the story of money are being rewritten in real time.

Have a good read,
Morten

To rebound or not - what to believe?

Bitcoin leverage heats up as traders bet on price rebound

Decrypt reports that bitcoin traders are piling back into leveraged longs as the price ranges between about 62,000 and 71,000 dollars, with three‑month futures premia and funding rates rising and options skew turning less bearish, indicating a modest shift toward bullish positioning even as spot volumes stay muted. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong says most retail users now hold equal or larger BTC balances than in December, suggesting dip‑buying is helping to underpin the market.

Why it matters: Rising leverage and improving sentiment without strong spot demand create a fragile setup where a squeeze‑driven rally is possible, but another downturn could still trigger sharp liquidations.

Source: Bitcoin Leverage Heats Up as Traders Bet on Price Rebound, Decrypt

Coinbase CEO reports resilient retail buying amid market conditions

Phemex highlights that Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong is seeing a significant increase in retail users buying Bitcoin and Ethereum during the latest market dip, with internal data showing higher buy volumes and most customers holding equal or larger BTC and ETH balances compared with December. He frames this as evidence of growing long‑term conviction among everyday investors, arguing that retail “buy the dip” behavior is acting as a stabilizing force even as prices remain volatile and institutional flows turn more cautious.

Why it matters: The trend suggests retail investors are evolving from short‑term speculators into longer‑horizon accumulators, providing organic support in downturns and potentially helping to set cycle floors as crypto markets mature.

Source: Coinbase CEO Reports Resilient Retail Buying Amid Market Conditions, Phemex News

Wall Street remains bullish on bitcoin while offshore traders retreat

CoinDesk reports a growing split in bitcoin markets, with U.S. institutional desks on CME still paying a premium to stay long while offshore traders on Deribit cut leverage and let futures basis collapse, signaling weaker risk appetite outside the U.S. NYDIG’s Greg Cipolaro argues that this CME–Deribit basis gap now serves as a real‑time gauge of geographic sentiment and finds little evidence that recent price swings were driven by quantum‑computing fears, noting bitcoin has largely moved in step with quantum‑stock benchmarks and related Google searches spike more on rallies than on selloffs.​

Why it matters: The divergence suggests U.S. institutional investors remain structurally bullish even as offshore speculators de‑risk, reinforcing the view that macro positioning and long‑term adoption, not quantum panic, are shaping the current consolidation.

Source: Wall Street remains bullish on bitcoin while offshore traders retreat, CoinDes

Market regulations in the US and China

CLARITY Act update: Crypto group fires back at banks

Coinpedia reports that the Digital Chamber, a major U.S. blockchain trade association, has released its own “stablecoin reward principles” to counter big banks’ push for a blanket ban on all stablecoin yield under the CLARITY Act, offering to give up interest‑like rewards on idle stablecoin balances while insisting that DeFi liquidity and ecosystem‑participation rewards remain protected under Section 404 exemptions. The group also says it can accept a two‑year study on how stablecoins affect bank deposits so long as it does not automatically trigger new rules, arguing that banks are trying to reopen issues already settled in the GENIUS Act and warning that an overbroad yield ban could weaken dollar‑backed stablecoins in DeFi and delay a market‑structure bill that both sides otherwise support.

Why it matters: The new principles show crypto industry leaders are willing to compromise on idle yield but determined to preserve DeFi and activity‑based rewards, framing the stablecoin fight as the main obstacle standing between Congress and a long‑awaited federal framework for digital assets.

Source: CLARITY Act Update: Crypto Group Fires Back at Banks With New Principles, Coinpedia

China draws a red line under tokenization & stablecoins

Blockhead reports that Beijing has formally extended its crypto crackdown to cover most real‑world asset tokenization and yuan‑linked stablecoins, with a new joint notice from the People’s Bank of China and other regulators banning unapproved RMB stablecoins and treating most tokenized assets as illegal finance unless they sit inside tightly controlled, licensed systems. The move effectively shuts down attempts to use Hong Kong or offshore structures to issue yuan stablecoins or tokenize Chinese collateral, asserting a state monopoly over digital representations of the renminbi even as Hong Kong pushes ahead with its own stablecoin licensing regime.

Why it matters: The policy hardens China’s comprehensive anti‑crypto stance by explicitly fencing off stablecoins and tokenization tied to Chinese assets, underscoring that any innovation around the digital yuan must stay within state‑designed rails rather than private or DeFi infrastructure.

Source: China Draws a Red Line Under Tokenization, Stablecoins, Blockhead

Major financial moves in social, AI and Fintech

Elon Musk’s X to launch crypto and stock trading in ‘couple weeks’

CoinDesk reports that Elon Musk’s social platform X (formerly Twitter) will soon let users trade stocks and cryptocurrencies directly from their timelines via a new “Smart Cashtags” feature, allowing them to tap ticker symbols in posts and execute trades inside the app as X pushes deeper into financial services. The rollout will coincide with an external beta of X Money, the platform’s in‑house payments system that Musk says is already live in internal testing and should be available to a limited group of users within one to two months, advancing his vision of X as an “everything app” where people can message, post, send money and invest without leaving the platform.​

Why it matters: Trading and payments tools like Smart Cashtags and X Money could turn X into a powerful distribution rail for retail investing and crypto adoption, blurring the line between social media and brokerage apps while leveraging Musk’s existing ties to Bitcoin and dogecoin through Tesla and SpaceX balance sheets and merch programs.

Source: Elon Musk’s X to launch crypto and stock trading in ‘couple weeks’, CoinDesk

OpenClaw creator Peter Steinberger joins OpenAI

TechCrunch reports that Peter Steinberger, creator of the viral open-source AI agent framework OpenClaw, is joining OpenAI to work on “bringing agents to everyone,” while OpenClaw itself is spun into an independent foundation that will remain open source with ongoing support from OpenAI. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said on X that OpenClaw will “live in a foundation” and described the future as “extremely multi‑agent,” signaling that Steinberger’s ideas about agent‑to‑agent collaboration and local‑first assistants will feed into OpenAI’s next generation of personal and multi‑agent products.

Why it matters: The move underscores how central agentic, open‑source tooling has become in the AI talent wars, with OpenAI pulling a leading independent agent builder in‑house while explicitly backing a foundation model to keep OpenClaw’s ecosystem open and multi‑model.

Source: OpenClaw creator Peter Steinberger joins OpenAI, TechCrunc

Stripe valuation approaches $140 billion

YMNTS reports that Stripe is arranging a new secondary tender offer that would value the payments giant at nearly 140 billion dollars, up from about 107 billion dollars in a 2025 deal and almost triple the 50 billion dollar trough valuation it hit during the 2023 tech downturn. The article notes that the jump reflects Stripe’s return to strong growth and profitability, with over 1.4 trillion dollars in payment volume processed in 2024 and investors betting that its push into stablecoin rails and embedded finance could justify an eventual IPO at or above the new implied valuation.

Why it matters: The looming 140 billion dollar mark would cement Stripe as one of the world’s most valuable private fintechs and signals renewed investor appetite for profitable payments infrastructure plays after a rough funding cycle for the broader sector.

Source: Stripe Valuation Approaches $140 Billion, PYMNTS

Monetary addresses in Norway - Fiat & Bitcoin

Did you know that Norway had two monetary “annual addresses” last week – one from Norges Bank on fiat, and one Satoshi address on Bitcoin as a new money infrastructure? Two very different money narratives – and the debate has only just begun.

Norway’s central bank governor: Stablecoins matter little to Norwegians — for now

Kaupr reports that Norges Bank Governor Ida Wolden Bache used her annual address to downplay the current importance of stablecoins in Norway, saying adoption is low and that bank deposits and existing payment solutions already offer efficient, cheap and secure digital money for households and businesses. She nonetheless highlighted international growth in stablecoin use and ongoing work on regulation, stressing that Norges Bank is monitoring developments in tokenization and private digital money even as it has concluded there is no current basis for introducing a Norwegian CBDC.

Why it matters: The remarks confirm that Norwegian authorities see stablecoins more as a future watchpoint than a present priority, reinforcing Norway’s cautious stance on CBDCs and private digital money while leaving room to pivot if market demand or risks rise.

Source: Norway’s central bank governor: Stablecoins matter little to Norwegians — for now, Kaupr

Bitcoin gets its own annual address in Oslo — challenging the central bank’s money narrative

Kaupr reports that the Bitcoin Policy Institute Norway has launched the “Satoshi Nakamoto Annual Address” at the National Library in Oslo, held the evening before Norges Bank’s long‑standing annual central bank speech to create a symbolic “bitcoin address” that precedes the traditional fiat‑focused event. This year’s inaugural address was delivered by Thomas Eichenberger, Deputy Group CEO and Chief Strategy Officer at Sygnum Bank, who used bitcoin as a prism to discuss money, technology and long‑term shifts in the financial system, positioning the event as an idea‑driven counterpart to the central bank’s macro and monetary policy outlook.

Why it matters: The initiative effectively inserts bitcoin into Norway’s official financial calendar, challenging the central bank’s monopoly on the annual “money narrative” and giving decentralized money a recurring institutional‑style platform in the public debate.

Source: Bitcoin gets its own annual address in Oslo — challenging the central banks money narrative, Kaupr

Other Nordic news - result season coming up

K33 doubled sales in 2025 — accelerating into 2026

Kaupr reports that Norwegian crypto broker K33 more than doubled its revenues in 2025, reaching about 2.2 billion SEK in total turnover as its Bitcoin Treasury strategy and brokerage‑as‑a‑service partnerships helped it gain market share in a choppy trading environment. Trading activity has remained strong into 2026, with 564 million SEK already traded so far in the first quarter, suggesting that K33 is sustaining high growth momentum as it positions itself as infrastructure for other Bitcoin treasury and institutional clients.

Why it matters: K33’s performance underscores how Nordic crypto brokers combining a Bitcoin balance‑sheet strategy with white‑label brokerage services can grow faster than the underlying market, turning treasury positioning and partnerships into a structural advantage.​

Source: K33 doubled sales in 2025 – accelerating into 2026, Kaupr

What to watch for

Watch how a jumpy mix of rising BTC leverage, fragile spot demand and a split between still‑bullish Wall Street desks and more cautious offshore traders resolves: with futures premia, funding and options skew tilting less bearish while retail keeps buying the dip but offshore basis softens, the setup points toward either a squeeze‑driven relief rally or another air‑pocket lower that punishes late longs as much as stubborn shorts.

Why it matters: Conviction is being expressed increasingly through leverage rather than clean spot inflows, which leaves both the “rebound” and “another flush” narratives live and raises the odds that, once one side finally capitulates, the move that follows is faster and sharper than the underlying news would normally justify.

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Best regards
Morten Myrstad
Founder & Editor