Yesterday we covered one of the biggest stories of the week: JPMorgan, BlackRock, and Franklin Templeton all moved to tokenize money market funds in the same week. If you missed it — read Wednesday's edition here.

Polymarket is under criminal investigation, Washington finally moved on crypto regulation, and the Bitcoin rally is stalling at a critical technical level. Meanwhile, the world's largest asset manager is betting $50 billion that the AI infrastructure shortage — not a bubble — defines the next decade.

Other stories in today's newsletter:

♦️ The Clarity Act clears the Senate Banking Committee in a 15-9 bipartisan vote — Bitcoin jumps to $82,000.

♦️ Bitcoin fails its 200-day moving average — leverage flushes $400 million in longs.

♦️ Jane Street cut its MSTR stake by 78% and added 51% more downside puts — contrarian signal worth reading.

♦️ Anthropic and OpenAI together account for $2 trillion in cloud revenue backlog — and neither is profitable.

♦️ Larry Fink calls AI a supply shortage, not a bubble — and backs it with $50 billion in infrastructure deals.

Have a great read — and a great weekend!

Morten

A New York Times investigation found more than 80 users with suspicious betting patterns across nearly 30 topics. The sharpest case: 13 users wagered $140,000 that Israel would strike Iran before it happened, netting $600,000. An Army Special Forces soldier has already been indicted for placing $33,000 in bets on the Maduro capture using classified information — and walking away with $409,000.

Why it matters: Polymarket's volume fell 9% in April while rival Kalshi grew 13%. The insider trading problem is not theoretical. It is now the central question regulators face.

Source: Dozens of Polymarket Bets Show Signs of Insider Trading, The Times Finds — The New York Times

The SDNY and CFTC filed parallel criminal and civil actions against Army Special Forces member Gannon Ken Van Dyke — the first insider trading case ever involving a prediction market. Van Dyke allegedly used classified information about the Maduro operation to net $409,000 from a $33,000 bet. The CFTC has since signalled imminent rulemaking on prediction markets.

Why it matters: The first criminal charge sets a legal precedent that will define the regulatory framework for the entire sector — including how Polymarket and Kalshi operate going forward.

Source: The First Prediction Market Insider Trading Case — Sidley Austin

Polymarket is in talks with the CFTC to lift the ban on US users from its main offshore exchange, in place since a 2022 settlement. Four vacant commission seats leave Chairman Michael Selig as the sole decision-maker. The talks are happening as the NYT investigation drops and the first criminal prosecution unfolds.

Why it matters: Polymarket is asking for expanded access at the exact moment its integrity is under the harshest scrutiny it has ever faced. The CFTC's answer will define whether prediction markets get regulated as mature financial products — or treated as a problem to contain.

Source: Polymarket seeks CFTC approval to reopen main exchange to US traders — CoinDesk

The Senate Banking Committee voted 15-9 to advance the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, with two Democrats crossing the aisle. The bill splits digital asset oversight between the SEC and CFTC. Bitcoin jumped to $82,000 on the news. It now needs to merge with the Agriculture Committee's crypto bill before a full Senate vote — where it will need 60 votes.

Why it matters: Bipartisan committee support is a meaningful threshold. For European and Nordic digital asset firms, US regulatory clarity is the single biggest variable in institutional adoption timelines.

Source: Bitcoin hits $82,000, Coinbase leads crypto stock gains as Clarity Act advances — CoinDesk

Chairman Tim Scott blocked votes on amendments covering stablecoin yield and DeFi law enforcement, citing a drafting error — then allowed other amendments with the same issue. Elizabeth Warren called it "a bill written by the crypto industry for the crypto industry." Senators Gallego and Alsobrooks crossed anyway, despite no deal yet on limiting Trump's personal crypto ventures.

Why it matters: The path to 60 Senate floor votes runs through the unresolved Trump ethics provision. The committee result is a win — but the harder negotiation is still ahead.

Source: Senate advances crypto bill, Democrats split on amendments — Politico

Bitcoin failed to break above its 200-day MA at $82,430, trading near $79,400. CryptoQuant flags unrealized profit margins at 17.7% — the highest since June 2025 — and last week's largest single-day profit-taking since December 2025: 14,600 BTC worth $1.16 billion. The Coinbase Premium has flipped negative. Key support sits at $70,000.

Why it matters: The last time Bitcoin failed its 200-day MA was March 2022 — just before it fell from $47,000 to under $16,000. On-chain data rarely lies.

Source: Bitcoin Rally Cut Short as Profit-Taking Rises, US Demand Falls: CryptoQuant — Decrypt

Bitcoin dropped to $78,720 after US PPI came in at 6% — the highest since 2022. Liquidations surged 68% to nearly $400 million, with $102 million of $117 million in BTC liquidations coming from longs. ETH open interest hit a record 15.42 million tokens. The CoinDesk Memecoin Index fell 10% in 24 hours.

Why it matters: The leverage flush confirms the rally was built on futures positioning, not spot demand. Until US buyers return, the on-chain recovery is not confirmed.

Source: Bitcoin stuck below $80,000 as leveraged longs unwind, altcoins slide — CoinDesk

Jane Street's Q1 2026 13F shows the quant giant cutting MSTR by 78%, IBIT by 71%, and FBTC by 60% — after growing its MSTR position by 473% the quarter before. The options book tells the real story: MSTR puts grew 51%, calls fell 31%. The same shift appears on IBIT. Jane Street posted record revenue of $16.1 billion for the quarter.

Why it matters: A book that shrinks stock exposure, cuts calls, and adds puts is not a neutral straddle. It wants more downside protection — worth knowing in a market debating whether $82,000 is a ceiling or a floor.

Source: Jane Street Sells 78% of Its MSTR and Bitcoin Holdings — BitcoinTreasuries.net

MARA Holdings sold 20,880 BTC worth $1.5 billion in Q1 2026, using $1 billion to retire 30% of its convertible debt and the rest to fund an AI infrastructure pivot. The company dropped from second to fourth among public Bitcoin holders, reported a $1.26 billion net loss, and said it will not make large ASIC purchases going forward. Up to 90% of its non-hosted mining capacity is being redirected to AI and high-performance computing workloads.

Why it matters: The largest publicly traded Bitcoin miner is selling into the rally rather than accumulating — and using the proceeds to buy energy infrastructure for AI. It is the starkest signal yet that the crypto mining business model is being replaced by something else entirely.

Source: Bitcoin miner MARA sold $1.5 billion of bitcoin as it shifts toward AI infrastructure — CoinDesk

At the Milken Institute Global Conference, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink dismissed AI bubble concerns. Demand for compute, chips, memory, and electricity is outpacing supply — and Fink predicts compute access will become a tradable asset class: "a new asset class will be buying futures of compute." BlackRock is already acting on it — a $40 billion data center consortium and a $10.7 billion deal to acquire power provider AES Corp.

Why it matters: When the world's largest asset manager calls AI infrastructure a "once-in-a-century" opportunity and backs it with $50 billion in deals, that is capital allocation — not commentary. The financialisation of compute is coming.

Source: BlackRock CEO Larry Fink disagrees with everyone who says there is an AI bubble — Times of India

Contracts between the two leading AI labs and Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Oracle have created a $2 trillion revenue backlog for those hyperscalers, per The Information. OpenAI is at $25 billion in annualised revenue; Anthropic crossed $30 billion in April, up from $9 billion at end-2025. Projected server costs: $45 billion for OpenAI, $20 billion for Anthropic this year.

Why it matters: The $2 trillion backlog anchors the AI investment thesis — and the gap between revenue growth and cash burn is the number that tests it. For financial institutions evaluating AI exposure, both figures matter equally.

Source: Two of the biggest cash-burning AI companies — Anthropic and OpenAI — now account for $2 trillion revenue backlog — Times of India

A new episode is dropping this weekend. Kaupr Weekly is Morten Myrstad's short, news-oriented podcast — analysing and commenting on the week's biggest stories in crypto and fintech.

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Wishing you a great Tuesday — and welcome back on Wednesday morning for the next edition of Kaupr Today.

Best regards
Morten Myrstad
Founder & Editor