Kaupr Today — Wednesday, 8 July 2026
Bitcoin is down 50% from its peak — but K33 says the worst is likely over. And while holders wait, new products are making it easier to earn, borrow and trade without selling a single sat.
Some of the stories in today's edition:
💎 K33: the worst of Bitcoin's slump is likely over
💎 Binance launches BTC Yield — covered call income for long-term holders
💎 Strike's volatility-proof Bitcoin loans: no margin calls, no price liquidations
💎 Polymarket enables instant Bitcoin deposits via Lightning
💎 USDC now handles 70% of stablecoin transaction volume — Tether is down to 25% 💎 The AI bubble question is no longer just for crypto investors
— Morten
📺 Missed last week's State of ETFs in the Nordics?
Nine senior voices from 21Shares, Virtune, Nasdaq, Valour, CoinShares, Nordnet, Bitwise, Xenix and MarketVector Indexes discussed the Nordic digital-asset ETP and ETF market in a two-hour live session on June 30. The full recording is now available.
K33: the worst of Bitcoin's slump is likely over
Bitcoin has fallen 50% from its peak — but K33 says the sell-off is changing character
Bitcoin has dropped more than 50% from its October 2025 peak, more than half of all circulating supply sits at an unrealised loss, and the price has fallen below its four-year average cost basis. K33 believes the character of the selling has shifted — from long-term holders distributing in 2025 to ETF outflows and recent buyers exiting at a loss in 2026 — and argues this combination of metrics has historically marked the late stages of bear markets. (Analysis)
Why it matters: K33 is a Norwegian research firm with institutional clients across the Nordics. Its base case — that $60,000 in February marked the cycle's maximum drawdown — is the clearest bottom call from a credible Nordic operator.
Source: K33: the worst of Bitcoin's slump is likely over — Kaupr (Analysis)
Bitcoin: new ways to hold, earn and borrow
Binance launches BTC Yield — a covered call income product for long-term Bitcoin holders
Binance has introduced BTC Yield, a new product inside Binance Earn that runs a systematic covered call strategy on deposited Bitcoin. Users deposit BTC, receive a position called BTCY, and collect weekly payouts from option premiums — all denominated in Bitcoin. Binance takes a 15% cut of gross premiums; yields and weekly payouts are not guaranteed and can be zero. The product cannot be funded with stablecoins. (Source: press release)
Why it matters: Covered call strategies are standard in traditional finance but have been hard to access for crypto retail investors. Binance's product follows BlackRock's Bitcoin income ETF in bringing yield generation to Bitcoin holders — the clearest sign yet that "passive income on Bitcoin" is becoming a mainstream product category.
Source: Binance introduces covered call yield product for Bitcoin holders — Crypto Briefing (Source: press release)
Strike launches volatility-proof Bitcoin loans — no margin calls, no price liquidations
Strike has introduced a new Bitcoin-backed loan structure that removes price-triggered liquidations and margin calls. As long as borrowers make payments on time, their Bitcoin collateral is not touched regardless of how far the price falls. The product carries a higher APR than Strike's standard loans — approximately 10.7% to 14.2% — and a shorter six-month term. It is available in most US states. (Source: press release)
Why it matters: The single biggest barrier to crypto-backed lending has always been the risk of forced liquidation in a volatile market. Strike's product reframes that risk: the threat is not price, but payment discipline. That is a structural shift in how Bitcoin holders can access liquidity without selling.
Source: Jack Mallers' Strike launches 'volatility-proof' bitcoin loans built to protect against liquidation — The Block
Polymarket turns on instant Bitcoin deposits via Lightning — powered by Spark
Polymarket has enabled instant self-custodial Bitcoin deposits over the Lightning Network using Spark's zero-conf infrastructure. Funds are credited in under a second, compared to the 10-60 minute wait for standard on-chain Bitcoin confirmations. The move follows Polymarket's addition of basic Bitcoin deposits in October 2025.
Why it matters: Prediction market traders need fast funding to enter live positions. Instant Lightning deposits remove the last meaningful friction point for Bitcoin holders using Polymarket — and expand the platform's addressable user base among the Bitcoin-native audience.
Source: Polymarket Turns On Instant Bitcoin Deposits Via Lightning Network, Powered By Spark — Bitcoin Magazine
Stablecoins: the question has shifted from "if" to "how"
Circle's USDC now handles 70% of stablecoin transaction volume — Tether is down to 25%
USDC accounted for roughly 70% of adjusted stablecoin transaction volume in the first half of 2026, with USDT at around 25%, according to Visa's onchain analytics dashboard. Total adjusted stablecoin volume hit a record $1.79 trillion in June alone — up 63% from May — bringing H1 2026 to $8.82 trillion, already more than all of 2024. In 2020, USDT held 90% of volume; USDC held less than 10%.
Why it matters: Market cap still favours Tether at $184 billion versus USDC's $73 billion. But transaction volume — where economic activity actually lives — has shifted decisively to USDC, driven by MiCA compliance in Europe and GENIUS Act positioning in the US.
Source: Circle's USDC is leaving Tether behind in the stablecoin volume race — CoinDesk
Banks have stopped asking if stablecoins belong in finance — now they're asking how
When Standard Chartered announced it would offer institutional clients direct USDC minting and redemption, it joined BNY in choosing Circle's infrastructure over building its own. Industry executives now frame the real competition not as which stablecoin wins, but which institution becomes the most trusted gateway for stablecoin flows.
Why it matters: Chainalysis estimates stablecoin settlement volumes could reach a quadrillion dollars annually by 2030. The banks racing to become the compliance layer for that market are not speculating — they are positioning for a structural role in the next generation of global payments infrastructure.
Source: Banks have stopped asking if stablecoins belong in finance, now they're considering how — CoinDesk
The AI bubble question is no longer just for crypto investors
Even banks and hyperscalers are now sounding the alarm about the AI bubble
The Register's tech desk notes that the BIS annual report, Oracle's SEC filing outlining everything that could go wrong with the Stargate deal, and a string of hyperscaler earnings misses have put AI bubble risk squarely into mainstream financial debate. Oracle has lost more than 40% of its share value in the past month, and five hyperscalers are on pace to spend more than $1 trillion on AI infrastructure in 2026 — outpacing free cash flow and increasingly funded through private credit with limited disclosure. (Analysis / commentary)
Why it matters: For crypto investors, the AI bubble question matters directly: AI capital flows have been one of the key explanations for Bitcoin's underperformance in 2026. If those flows slow or reverse, the rotation argument changes — but so does the macro environment they rotate back into.
Source: Even banks and hyperscalers are now sounding the alarm about the AI bubble — The Register (Analysis / commentary)
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Wishing you a great Wednesday — and welcome back tomorrow morning for the next edition of Kaupr Today.
Best regards
Morten Myrstad
Founder & Editor