Welcome to Kaupr Today

Today's edition goes to the core of crypto — institutional momentum, analyst conviction, and prediction markets forcing their way into the mainstream. Plus a short look at the AI race changing, and a close look at what MiCA really means for European business.

🔷 Institutional momentum — the money is moving back in
🔷 Bernstein & Fidelity: the bull case is getting stronger
🔷 The AI infrastructure race just changed
🔷 Prediction markets: the hype, the scandal and the data
🔷 MiCA's moment — banks rush in, crypto firms count the cost
🔷 Kaupr TV recordings and Nordic evergreen reads

Have a good read!

Morten

Institutional momentum - the money is moving back in

BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF overtakes Deribit — regulated crypto derivatives go mainstream

IBIT options open interest on Nasdaq reached $27.6 billion last week, edging past Deribit's $26.9 billion in Bitcoin options — the first time a regulated US venue has topped the offshore giant that has dominated crypto derivatives since 2016. IBIT now holds a record 806,700 BTC and commands nearly 50% of the US spot Bitcoin ETF market. The milestone arrived just two years after launch.

Why it matters: When regulated US infrastructure overtakes the offshore market in derivatives volume, institutional Bitcoin is no longer catching up — it has arrived.

Source: BlackRock's bitcoin ETF just hit a massive milestone that proves crypto is now a mainstream bet — CoinDesk

Blockchain Capital raises $700 million — crypto VC is back

Blockchain Capital is raising $700 million across two new funds — its seventh early-stage vehicle and second growth fund — with the process expected to close within five to six months. The firm, which manages $2 billion in assets and has backed Coinbase, Circle, Polymarket and Tether, has already begun deploying some of the new capital. The raise comes as crypto VC funding climbed to $2.42 billion in March, up sharply from $683 million in February.

Why it matters: One of crypto's most established VC firms is doubling down at scale — a signal that institutional appetite for early and growth-stage crypto investment is recovering after a difficult 2024.

Source: Blockchain Capital Seeks $700M for Two New Crypto Funds — Decrypt

Bernstein & Fidelity: What the data actually says

Bernstein: the best days of crypto are still ahead

As Bitcoin approaches $80,000, Bernstein analysts see the recent $60,000 lows as a clear trough and the start of a structurally longer bull cycle. The firm points to steady institutional inflows from asset managers, Strategy's continued Bitcoin accumulation via its STRC instrument, and the growing integration of blockchain rails into mainstream finance. With 60% of Bitcoin supply inactive for over a year, the ownership structure is tightening just as new institutional on-ramps are opening.

Why it matters: This is not retail euphoria — it's an analyst note grounded in structural shifts. When Bernstein calls asymmetric upside, institutional allocators listen.

Source: The best days of crypto are ahead — Bernstein sees asymmetric upside and structurally longer bull cycle — The Block

Fidelity: Bitcoin is anchoring the market — stabilisation is underway

Fidelity Digital Assets' Q2 2026 Signals Report finds early signs of stabilisation across key metrics — unrealized profitability, momentum and network usage — even as prices remain range-bound. Bitcoin continues to serve as the market's anchor, with dominance rising and capital concentrated in the most liquid asset. A notable divergence is emerging between price and network activity on Ethereum and Solana, suggesting continued demand at the infrastructure level despite muted prices.

Why it matters: When Fidelity frames consolidation as a corrective phase rather than a bear market, it signals institutional conviction — not panic.

Source: Fidelity Digital Assets says bitcoin is leading crypto market stabilization — CoinDesk

The AI infrastructure race just changed

Microsoft drops exclusive rights to OpenAI — Amazon and Google move in

Microsoft and OpenAI have renegotiated their landmark partnership, ending Microsoft's exclusive licence to OpenAI's technology. OpenAI can now sell its models across any cloud provider — Amazon and Google included. Microsoft retains a non-exclusive licence through 2032 and remains OpenAI's primary cloud partner, but will no longer pay a revenue share to OpenAI. The deal resolves a potential legal clash over OpenAI's $50 billion Amazon partnership and clears the path for OpenAI's enterprise expansion ahead of a likely IPO.

Why it matters: The AI infrastructure race just opened up — OpenAI is no longer a Microsoft exclusive, and every cloud provider is now in play.

Source: Microsoft to end exclusive licence for OpenAI's technology — Reuters

Prediction markets: the hype, the scandal and the data

Prediction markets are growing fast, attracting institutional money — and running into serious questions about regulation, integrity and how they actually work. Three stories, one deeper read.

Kalshi and Polymarket are coming for crypto's biggest trade — perpetual futures

Kalshi and Polymarket are planning to launch perpetual futures — the leveraged, no-expiry contracts that account for over 70% of all centralised crypto exchange volume. Perps have been largely off-limits in the US until now, but the CFTC is actively working to bring them onshore. If they land via prediction market platforms, Coinbase and Robinhood face direct competition from their own partners.

Why it matters: Prediction markets are moving into the core of crypto trading infrastructure — and the US regulatory window is opening for the first time.

Source: Prediction markets prepare to invade one of crypto's biggest and riskiest trades — CNBC

Prediction markets want to ban insider trading. The economist who invented them says that's the point

A US Army soldier faces five felonies for allegedly using classified intelligence to bet $33,000 on Polymarket that a raid to capture Maduro would happen — cashing out $400,000 when it did. Kalshi also fined three congressional candidates for betting on their own races. Both platforms are now restricting insider trading. But Robin Hanson, whose work underpins prediction market theory, says insiders should trade — their information is what makes prices accurate.

Why it matters: Prediction markets face a fundamental tension: the insider information that makes them valuable is also what makes them politically toxic.

Source: Kalshi and Polymarket are racing to ban insider trading. The economist who built the theory says it's the whole point — Fortune

New York sues prediction markets — CFTC sues back

New York Attorney General Letitia James sued Coinbase and Gemini last week, calling their prediction market offerings illegal gambling. The CFTC responded by suing New York, arguing federal law gives it exclusive authority over these markets. More than a dozen states are now involved in similar battles — and a federal judge already barred Arizona from enforcing gambling restrictions against Kalshi. The core question: are prediction markets financial derivatives or gambling by another name?

Why it matters: The regulatory outcome will define whether prediction markets scale into mainstream finance or remain legally contested — and who ultimately controls them.

Source: New York joins fight to regulate prediction markets — Gothamist

Going deeper: Skilled Polymarket traders are a 3% minority — and everyone else funds their gains — The Block

MiCA's moment — banks rush in, crypto firms count the cost

Europe's banks stop treating crypto as a side project

KBC, Belgium's largest bank, has switched on regulated Bitcoin and ether trading through its existing brokerage platform — the latest in a wave including BBVA, DZ Bank and Société Générale. MiCA changed the question from "should we build a digital asset product?" to "should we add digital assets to what we already have?"

Why it matters: The banks that move first will own the client relationship across trading, payments and custody — and over a third of European investors say they'd switch banks for better crypto services.

Source: Europe's banks are going all in on crypto — CoinDesk

MiCA is a door, not a business model — Bybit CEO

Bybit CEO Ben Zhou says a MiCA licence alone is not enough to be profitable in Europe. The framework only covers fiat-to-crypto and crypto-to-crypto trading — to offer derivatives and tokenised assets, firms also need MiFID II and Electronic Money Institution licences. Even Bybit, the world's second-largest exchange by volume, is at least two years from breaking even in Europe. The MiCA grandfathering period ends July 1, and Zhou expects significant consolidation as smaller firms weigh the cost of additional licences against uncertain returns.

Why it matters: MiCA created a level playing field for access — but profitability requires a much deeper regulatory stack. For Nordic firms eyeing European expansion, the bar is higher than it looks.

Source: MiCA's not enough: Bybit CEO says firms need other licenses to turn a profit in Europe — CoinDesk

Kaupr TV - recordings from April 24 2026

Watch recordings from Kaupr TV - on YouTube, Kaupr & Linkedin

Kaupr TV Live was back on air Friday 24 April, live from the studio in Stockholm — news, guests and conversations from the Nordic, Baltic and European Web3 and digital finance scene.

▶️ Watch on YouTube 📺 Watch on the KauprTV portal 📅 Watch on LinkedIn Event

Hosted by Morten Myrstad and Leon Aleksander Karlsen Solbakken

Nordic evergreen insight

Baltic Crypto Adoption Hub

Baltic Crypto Adoption Week 2026 (7–9 April) has wrapped, and all content is now available in an evergreen hub on Kaupr.
Hub: Baltic Crypto Adoption, Kaupr

Nordic Crypto Adoption Week Hub

Nordic Crypto Adoption Week 2026 (23–26 March) has wrapped, and all content is now available in an evergreen hub on Kaupr.
Hub: Nordic Crypto Adoption — Kaupr

Nordic voices on diversity in crypto

On 6 March, Kaupr brought together guests from Norway, Sweden, Denmark, and Finland for a Diversity in Crypto event.
Hub: Diversity in Crypto — Kaupr

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Best regards
Morten Myrstad
Founder & Editor