IMF warns on the AI boom · Riksbank, SoftBank, Amex — Sun 18 Oct

Good afternoon!

AI ran through this week's news. The IMF warned that a crash in AI shares could threaten global financial stability, Broadcom's chief executive compared many AI investors to casino gamblers, and SoftBank paid its highest-ever yield to borrow for its AI bets. AI agents have already made more than 138 million crypto payments, and the Financial Stability Board, Amex and Michael Dell all called for guardrails on what they can do.

Beyond AI, Sweden's Riksbank asked parliament to prepare a digital krona, tokenisation moved further into mainstream finance, and bitcoin waited for buyers. Five threads ran through the week's Daily editions; here they are in one read.

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The warnings came from the top. The IMF warned that a crash in AI shares could threaten global financial stability, pointing to high valuations and borrowed money. Broadcom's Hock Tan said many AI investors "have no clue what they are investing in".

The money behind the boom. Two Deakin University researchers showed how Nvidia invests in, supplies and buys from many of the same AI companies, including OpenAI and Anthropic. SoftBank paid its highest-ever yield in a record junk bond sale to fund its AI bets. Amazon is in talks to buy AI start-up Decart for about $7 billion.

Markets reacted. After US inflation came in at a five-month high, chip shares fell across Asia, and Korea's Kospi dropped as much as 8%.

Debt and AI companies investing in each other finance much of the build-out, and that is what this week's warnings were about.

Wallets moved inside the apps. Rain made the stablecoin wallet the account at the centre of its payments platform. Base launched a stack that lets apps offer stablecoin yield and crypto-backed loans through Aave and Morpho. Stripe's Privy added XRP Ledger wallets that AI agents can use to hold funds and pay.

Agents already pay. AI agents have made more than 138 million payments through Coinbase's x402 protocol, most of them for less than 10 cents, Chainalysis finds. Cerebras' Andrew Feldman expects personal AI assistants at home that "will certainly have access to credit cards and be able to buy things for you".

The calls for guardrails grew. The Financial Stability Board asked firms to set risk-based triggers for when an agent must get human approval. Amex launched a framework that records what a customer allows an agent to buy before it pays. Michael Dell said AI needs "bounded permissions", with a role for government.

So far, the guardrails for agents that spend money are guidance and voluntary frameworks, not binding rules.

Central banks went different ways. New Zealand's central bank put its digital cash plans on hold to modernise payments first. Days later, Sweden's Riksbank asked parliament to start preparing a digital krona, pointing to the security situation, the coming digital euro and the growth of dollar stablecoins.

Tokenised deposits got a test. HSBC and Ant Digital Technologies tested how AI agents can pay for digital services with tokenised bank deposits, settling micropayments in real time. Fintech writer Rich Turrin argues that because stablecoins, central bank money and tokenised deposits all settle through banks, banks will matter more as finance moves onchain.

Banks took on crypto. Jeonbuk Bank made South Korea's first bank loan backed by bitcoin. Standard Chartered will offer custody of tokenised assets in Singapore. And Kraken's parent Payward agreed to buy Saldo Bank, licensed in Lithuania, for an EU banking licence.

Central banks are weighing their own digital money, while banks are building theirs and bringing crypto into regulated banking.

Wall Street took notice. Barron's put tokenisation on its cover, calling it one of the biggest infrastructure upgrades since trading went electronic, and The Wall Street Journal, CNBC and Bloomberg covered it the same week. Fidelity's Matthew Horne said there is "really no going back" for institutions moving onchain.

Asset managers and exchanges built. Franklin Templeton and Animoca Brands teamed up on NUVA, a marketplace for tokenised loans and funds. In Korea, Shinhan became the first local institution to help run the Canton Network. Nasdaq Ventures invested in One Trading, which has Dutch backing for a round-the-clock market in equity perpetuals.

Collateral emerged as the use case. BNY and Citadel Securities tested tokenised Treasuries as collateral for short-term financing. Citi expects banks and asset managers to run traditional and tokenised collateral as one pool for years, with delivery and payment settling at the same moment.

This week's tokenisation news came mostly from banks, asset managers and exchanges, and its first big use looks like collateral.

The price is stuck. Bitcoin has struggled to hold above $85,000 as inflows to spot ETFs dried up, and nearly $1 billion in leveraged bets were liquidated after the US inflation data. A year after last October's crash, order books for bitcoin and ether are nonetheless deeper than before it.

The optimists spoke. Michael Saylor said bitcoin has bottomed and expects it back above $100,000. Bitmine's Tom Lee expects a wealth transfer to younger heirs to fuel crypto demand.

Two firms do most of the buying. Strategy and Strive have added more bitcoin this year than all businesses combined on net, according to River. Strive raised another $630 million through preferred shares, and in Paris, Capital B posted a half-year loss on bitcoin write-downs.

More companies hold bitcoin than a year ago, but corporate demand rests on a handful of buyers and their ability to raise money.

Revolut's chief executive Nik Storonsky wants a primary listing in the US, and not before 2028.

Activity on Robinhood Chain fell by more than 40% from mid-September, though deposits held steady.

Interactive Brokers launched ether staking for eligible clients, run by Zero Hash.

CoinShares brought stablecoin yield strategies to users of the Safe self-custody wallet.

Bank of America was fined $1.2 billion for money laundering and sanctions failures, FinCEN's third-largest fine after Binance and TD Bank.

Google published a quantum computing advance that narrows the gap to breaking bitcoin's cryptography, though experts see a capable machine as years away.

On Thursday we launched Onchain Finance by Kaupr, the new name for Future of Finance Premium. It follows how stablecoins, tokenised assets and AI agents are coming together with traditional finance and crypto, in two tracks that alternate every Thursday:

👉 About Onchain Finance →

There is no new episode this week, so here is last week's again: ten movements bringing old and new finance together, from bitcoin as a mainstream portfolio asset to tokenised stocks, stablecoin payments and banks split between stablecoins and tokenised deposits. Many of them ran through this week's news.

👉 Listen to Episode 13 → · Spotify · Apple Podcasts

Kaupr Today comes in two editions

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Thank you for reading Kaupr Digest. Wishing you a good Sunday — Kaupr Daily is back on Monday morning.

Best regards Morten Myrstad Founder & Editor