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The IMF warns that a crash in AI shares could put global financial stability at risk, with high valuations and borrowed money behind the rally. Broadcom’s chief executive Hock Tan is blunter: many AI investors, he says, are like casino gamblers.
Some stories in Kaupr Daily:
💎 Amazon in talks to buy AI start-up Decart for about $7 billion
💎 South Korea gets its first bank loan backed by bitcoin
💎 HSBC and Ant test tokenised deposits for AI agent payments
💎 New Zealand’s central bank puts digital cash on hold
In this week’s Trendline, Venkat Hrushikesa Varri looks at whether bitcoin’s recovery holds after it turned back near $87,000.
— Morten
The IMF and Broadcom warn about the AI trade
A sharp fall in AI stocks would have global consequences, the IMF warns in its Global Financial Stability Report, with Asian markets the most exposed. It points to high valuations, rising company debt and investors borrowing to buy AI shares. The largest tech stocks now make up more than 35% of the S&P 500, up from 12% a decade ago.
Why it matters: The IMF names rising government borrowing costs and a major cyber attack as the other main risks that could trigger market turmoil.
Source: Threat of AI share crash puts world financial stability at risk, says IMF — The Guardian
Broadcom's Hock Tan calls many AI investors "casino gamblers"
Broadcom chief executive Hock Tan says many investors in AI and chips "have no clue what they are investing in". OpenAI, with $50 billion in annualised revenue, is "still losing money because they are spending a lot on training", he said. His remarks triggered a sell-off in chip stocks across Asia.
Why it matters: Tan warns that capital could become the industry's next constraint, and that AI developers need customers who can earn a return on the technology.
Source: 'Bunch of Casino Gamblers' - Broadcom CEO remarks trigger broader sell-off among chip stocks — CNBC TV18
Amazon in talks to buy AI start-up Decart for about $7 billion
Amazon is in talks to buy Decart for around $7 billion, the Wall Street Journal reports. The San Francisco company, founded by three Israeli engineers in 2023, builds software that lets developers run AI workloads across different chips, and world models that simulate 3D environments. Decart was valued at nearly $4 billion in May.
Why it matters: Big tech keeps paying up for AI technology: the reported price is close to double Decart's valuation five months ago.
Source: Amazon is in talks to buy AI startup Decart for around $7 billion — Quartz
Bitcoin steadies after last week's sell-off
Bitcoin holds near $84,000 despite ETF outflows
Bitcoin touched about $84,250 on Monday before slipping back, even as US spot bitcoin ETFs reported $681 million in outflows last week, the largest since June. Oil fell after Trump announced Russian diesel supplies, easing some of the pressure. Analysts point to $82,000 as the support to defend.
Why it matters: US inflation data on 14 October is the next test, with Treasury yields at their highest in 24 years.
Onchain data shows signs of a bitcoin bottom
A CryptoQuant contributor sees conditions for a bitcoin bottom improving: apparent demand has recovered sharply, whales have kept holding through the correction, and reserves on exchanges remain low. QCP notes that the feared repeat of last year's 10 October crash did not happen, and that options markets point to a possible breakout.
Why it matters: Confirmation would need sustained ETF inflows and stronger spot buying in the US, which have so far been missing.
Source: Bitcoin shows bottoming signs despite recent macro pressures — FXStreet
📈 Trendline: Bitcoin tests the recovery after rejection at $87,000
In this week's Trendline, Venkat Hrushikesa Varri looks at why bitcoin turned back near $87,000, why $83,500 is the near-term pivot, and what a new lower low would change for the recovery.
South Korea's banks go onchain
South Korea gets its first bank loan backed by bitcoin
Jeonbuk Bank has made South Korea's first bank loan backed by bitcoin, lending in won to corporate clients for operating costs. A registered crypto custodian holds the collateral. In a default, the bank would recover its money through a court-ordered sale, possible under rules that took effect on 1 October. Rates and limits were not disclosed.
Why it matters: Bitcoin becomes collateral inside the regulated banking system, and the bank may expand the service as demand and regulation develop.
Source: South Korea just got its first traditional bank loans backed by bitcoin — CoinDesk
Shinhan and Hanwha bring Canton into Korean finance
Shinhan Asset Management has become the first Korean financial institution approved as a super validator on the Canton Network, a blockchain backed by Wall Street firms. Shinhan and Hanwha Investment & Securities have both invested in Digital Asset, which develops Canton, and LG CNS has a strategic partnership with it.
Why it matters: "It's the opportunity for Korean-issued equities to meet global capital," says Viv Diwakar, head of the Canton Foundation.
Source: Wall Street-backed blockchain Canton Network expands presence in South Korea — CoinGape
Tokenised deposits and digital cash
HSBC and Ant test tokenised deposits for AI agent payments
HSBC and Ant Digital Technologies have tested how AI agents can pay for digital services with tokenised bank deposits. The agents found services, used them and paid micropayments of under $2, settled in real time on Ant's Jovay test network through HSBC's tokenised deposit service. The test does not show whether the model works commercially.
Why it matters: Agent payments have so far run mostly on stablecoins and protocols such as x402. This test puts a bank's own money in that role.
Source: HSBC, Ant put tokenized deposits to work in AI agent payment test on Jovay — CoinGape
New Zealand's central bank puts digital cash on hold
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has paused work on digital cash, which it had aimed to have in place by 2030, to focus on modernising the payment system and introducing real-time retail payments. Its consultation found wide public concern that digital cash could replace physical cash.
Why it matters: With cash use falling and private digital money such as stablecoins growing, economist Murat Ungor says the pause raises longer-term questions about access to central bank money.
Source: Reserve Bank puts digital cash on hold — RNZ
Kaupr Today comes in two editions
Kaupr Daily — daily signals on onchain finance, every weekday.
Kaupr Digest — the week's most important news in one read, every Sunday.
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Onchain Growth — weekly briefing on the Nordic and Baltic onchain industry, every Tuesday.
Onchain Build — notes for builders, organisers and operators.
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Kaupr Events — upcoming events, curated picks and full recordings.
Kaupr Weekly — ten-minute podcast on the week's most important news, every Sunday.
Wishing you a great Tuesday — and welcome back tomorrow morning for the next edition of Kaupr Today.
Best regards Morten Myrstad Founder & Editor