Hougan on bitcoin's next buyer, MiCA backfires, CLARITY Act — Wed 15 Jul

Strategy sold bitcoin and the price didn't blink. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan says that's the signal: institutions are taking over as bitcoin's next marginal buyer. And in Europe, MiCA's first real test produced a surprise — 70% of Binance's EU users chose self-custody over regulated exchanges.

Some of the stories in today's edition:

💎 Hougan: institutions are bitcoin's next buyer — Kaupr traces the thesis
💎 Bessent made the case for stablecoins — skeptics should take note
💎 Seven out of ten Binance EU withdrawals went to self-custody — not MiCA platforms 💎 Goobit/BTCX can operate until July 23 — and an appeal could extend it further
💎 UK defers capital gains tax on DeFi — 700,000 users affected from April 2027
💎 Lummis: CLARITY Act text in days — "it's time to land this plane"
💎 Hyperliquid: stocks now bigger than crypto on weekdays

— Morten

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Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan published a detailed CIO memo on July 1 arguing that Strategy's dominant role as bitcoin's primary buyer is ending. When Strategy reported its largest single bitcoin sale earlier this month, the expected price crash never came — a signal Hougan takes as evidence the market's next marginal buyer is already stepping in: banks, pension funds, sovereign wealth funds and financial advisers.

Why it matters: Kaupr interviewed Hougan in Barcelona last fall, where he first outlined this thesis. July's memo is a continuation and sharpening — now backed by independent on-chain data showing bitcoin changing hands from long-term holders to a new generation of institutional buyers.

Source: Hougan predicts power shift: Institutions are bitcoin's next buyer — Kaupr

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent framed stablecoins, tokenization and new payment systems as the "new frontiers in financial technologies," arguing the U.S. "should not consign itself to the sidelines while that future is built elsewhere." Wall Street veteran Jordi Visser and Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan both called the speech a defining blueprint for America's role in digital finance.

Why it matters: When the Treasury Secretary tells skeptics they can no longer ignore digital assets, the conversation has moved from ideology to economics.

Source: US Treasury's Scott Bessent made the case for stablecoins and tokenization — Yahoo Finance / Stocktwits

Binance CEO Richard Teng revealed that 70% of funds withdrawn by EU/EEA users went to self-custody wallets — not to MiCA-regulated platforms. Teng questioned whether this undermines MiCA's core purpose: funds in self-custody fall outside AML controls and KYC processes the regulation was designed to extend.

Why it matters: MiCA's first major test produced the opposite of its intended outcome — and the 70/30 split means Binance's former users are not locked into rival exchanges, shortening the path back once Binance secures a new licence.

Source: Seven out of ten crypto withdrawals ended in self-custody wallets after Binance EU halt — Kaupr

The Swedish FSA confirmed to Kaupr that Goobit/BTCX can continue operating under transitional provisions until July 23, because the company submitted its MiCA application before the deadline. If Goobit appeals before that date, a court could grant an injunction allowing the business to continue while legal proceedings play out.

Why it matters: July 23 is when FI's rejection becomes legally binding. Whether Goobit appeals will determine whether BTCX has weeks or months of runway left.

Source: Why Goobit/BTCX can continue operating despite FSA rejection: here is the critical date — Kaupr

HMRC published new rules on July 13 treating certain crypto disposals involving lending protocols and liquidity pools as "no gain, no loss" — deferring capital gains tax until users make an actual economic disposal. The rules take effect April 6, 2027, and are expected to affect approximately 700,000 individuals.

Why it matters: The UK is removing friction from crypto participation by aligning the tax event with economic reality — not by lowering rates. For DeFi participants, this makes UK-based activity materially more attractive.

Source: UK HMRC adopts 'no gain, no loss' tax treatment for crypto lending, liquidity pools — The Block

Senator Cynthia Lummis said on July 14 that bill text for the CLARITY Act will be introduced "in the next few days" after ten months of negotiations. The Senate has roughly three weeks before the August 7 recess — the last realistic window for passage this year.

Why it matters: Lummis is not seeking re-election, making this her final realistic opportunity to pass the digital asset legislation she has spent three sessions building. The bill still needs 60 votes and three unresolved disputes remain open.

Source: Lummis says CLARITY Act text coming 'in next few days' — The Defiant

On July 8, builder-deployed markets for stocks, commodities and indices generated more than 50% of Hyperliquid's total trading volume for the first time. On Tuesday, builder markets accounted for $5.41 billion of the $10.44 billion traded, with Bitcoin and Ethereum perps taking the other half.

Why it matters: Hyperliquid launched as a crypto derivatives venue. It is now, on weekdays, primarily a venue for stocks, commodities and indices — traded onchain, 24/7, without a broker.

Source: Builder-deployed markets overtake crypto on Hyperliquid — The Defiant

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Wishing you a great Wednesday — and welcome back tomorrow morning for the next edition of Kaupr Today.

Best regards Morten Myrstad Founder & Editor