Welcome to Kaupr Today

Good morning! A hawkish Fed path, negative ETF cost bases and a retail‑to‑whale handover are keeping bitcoin pinned in the mid‑$70,000s, even as the infrastructure around it steps up. Alongside Fidelity’s digital dollar, Circle’s “internet financial system” vision and fast‑growing tokenized equities, this edition highlights Nordic‑driven moves – from Norway’s first Satoshi Nakamoto Annual Address to BTCX’s full‑site redesign

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Kaupr Today is your daily briefing on digital assets, fintech, and web3 with a strong Nordic lens. It brings concise, high‑signal updates on markets, products, companies, community initiatives, and standout content from Kaupr’s channels (including Kaupr TV and events) and leading regional players.

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Have a good read,
Morten

Bitcoin price, flows and investor behaviour

Bitcoin grinds around $76,000 as Trump’s hawkish Fed pick and weak dip‑buying keep the downtrend intact

Bitcoin is hovering near $76,000 after its fourth straight month of losses, with the latest leg down coinciding with President Trump’s plan to nominate noted hawk Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell at the Fed in May. 10X Research and Fundstrat highlight ongoing deleveraging and weak dip‑buying even as BTC approaches mid‑$70,000s support tied to last year’s tariff‑driven low and Strategy’s (MSTR) cost basis.

Why it matters: This frames the move as a structurally fragile phase where tighter‑for‑longer Fed expectations, weak risk appetite and cautious ETF/whale positioning weigh on BTC despite historically important support zones.
Source: Bitcoin Downtrend Persists Near $76,000 Amid Hawkish Fed Nominee Impact, IndexBox / Yahoo Finance

Bitcoin as a liquidity barometer: CoinShares’ 2025 lessons

CoinShares’ “liquidity lens” note argues that Bitcoin has traded as a proxy for global dollar liquidity, lagging in 2025’s tightening regime even as narratives stayed bullish, while altcoins saw deeper outflows as fragmented liquidity rotated to majors, AI stocks and gold. Once policy, regulatory and geopolitical uncertainty clears, they expect assets that re‑priced fastest on the way down—especially BTC—to move fastest in the next expansion.

Why it matters: This gives allocators a macro frame: treat BTC as a high‑beta liquidity gauge with asymmetric upside in the next easing cycle, and altcoins as leveraged expressions of surplus liquidity rather than core structural holdings.
Source: The liquidity lens: lessons from 2025 and a look ahead, CoinShares

Retail traders flee bitcoin’s selloff while ‘mega‑whales’ quietly buy the dip

Glassnode’s cohort data shows that only the largest holders—wallets with 10,000 BTC or more—are in light accumulation as prices slide into the high‑$70,000s, while all smaller cohorts, especially retail under 10 BTC, have been net sellers for over a month. Entities holding at least 1,000 BTC are back to late‑2024 levels, suggesting large players are absorbing supply as smaller holders exit.

Why it matters: The pattern of retail capitulation versus whale accumulation fits a classic late‑cycle flush and signals BTC is shifting from weaker to stronger hands during the current correction.
Source: Retail traders are running for the exit amid bitcoin’s selloff, while ‘mega-whales’ are quietly buying the dip, CoinDesk

Investments, net values and returns

Bitcoin sell‑off pushes IBIT’s average investor into the red for the first time

BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has seen dollar‑weighted investor returns turn negative after Bitcoin’s drop into the mid‑$70,000s, as most inflows arrived at higher prices now underwater. Yet IBIT remains BlackRock’s fastest ETF to roughly $70 billion in AUM, showing how much mainstream capital piled into spot BTC exposure before this reset.

Why it matters: This shows how quickly ETF “tourist flows” can flip aggregate returns negative when momentum breaks, and why flow‑weighted cost basis is becoming a key gauge of whether spot BTC ETFs absorb or amplify market stress.
Source: Bitcoin sell-off pushes IBIT investor returns into the red — asset manager, Cointelegraph via TradingView

Michael Saylor’s bitcoin stack dips underwater, but Strategy isn’t under pressure to sell

Bitcoin’s slide into the mid‑$70,000s briefly pushed Strategy’s roughly 712,000 BTC below its average purchase price near $76,000 per coin, leaving unrealized losses but no margin‑call or forced‑liquidation risk because the holdings aren’t pledged as collateral. The real constraint is on future buying: with MSTR around or below its BTC per‑share value, at‑the‑market equity raises become less attractive, slowing further accumulation.

Why it matters: Being “underwater” on a corporate BTC treasury mainly limits further accumulation rather than triggering fire sales, underscoring how Saylor’s strategy now depends on equity‑market appetite rather than solvency.
Source: Michael Saylor’s bitcoin stack is officially underwater, but here’s why he likely won’t reach for the panic button, CoinDesk​

​Stablecoins and the financial internet

Banks may lose up to $500 billion as Fidelity’s digital dollar launches on Ethereum with freeze powers

Fidelity has launched the Fidelity Digital Dollar (FIDD) on Ethereum via its national trust bank, backing the token with cash and short‑term Treasuries and distributing it through Fidelity brokerage, custody and wealth channels. Analysts estimate US banks could see up to $500 billion in deposits migrate to such stablecoins by 2028 as onchain settlement volumes rise and large issuers carve up the market by distribution channels and regulatory perimeters.

Why it matters: This illustrates the shift from generic stablecoins to segmented, compliance‑wrapped dollars that directly compete with bank deposits, turning distribution and regulatory positioning into the key moat.
Source: Fidelity Investments starts its own stablecoin in a massive crypto push, Yahoo Finance; Fidelity Digital Dollar (FIDD), Fidelity Digital Assets

Checkout dot com acquires euro stablecoin issuer Blue EMI

Checkout dot com is acquiring Lithuania‑based Blue EMI, a licensed issuer of euro‑denominated stablecoins, to build a MiCA‑compliant stablecoin and digital‑money hub in the EU. The deal gives Checkout its own regulated issuance stack in Europe on top of its existing PSP franchise.​

Why it matters: This is a clear example of payment processors buying their way into regulated stablecoin issuance to avoid being disintermediated by bank‑ and fintech‑native tokens in the MiCA era.​
Source: Checkout.com acquires euro stablecoin issuer Blue EMI, Finextra

Circle lays out 2026 roadmap for an “internet financial system”

Circle’s product vision describes a full‑stack platform around Arc (an open L1 “Economic OS” now in high‑throughput testnet), a growing asset layer (USDC, EURC, the USYC tokenized money‑market fund, and xReserve‑based partner stablecoins), and applications like Circle Payments Network and StableFX for onchain FX and global money movement. Arc testnet has processed more than 150 million transactions with sub‑second finality, while CCTP, Gateway and App Kits aim to abstract chain complexity for developers and enterprises.​

Why it matters: Circle is positioning itself as a regulated, modular financial stack for institutions, combining its own L1, cross‑chain USDC rails, tokenized cash products and payments/FX apps into potential core infrastructure for onchain finance.​
Source: Building the Internet Financial System: Circle’s Product Vision for 2026, Circle

​Tokenization and securitites

Tokenized equities surge nearly 3,000% in a year toward the $1 billion mark

The market for tokenized stocks grew almost 3,000% in 2025, with value jumping to about $963 million as new SEC guidance and a DTCC pilot pushed regulated onchain equity toward the $1 billion milestone. Growth is concentrated in compliant wrappers that mirror traditional shares while settling on public chains, rather than unregulated “synthetic” stock tokens.

Why it matters: This is a concrete sign that tokenization is moving from pitch decks into market structure, with regulated equity tokens becoming a live testbed for how far existing securities law can be extended onto public blockchains.
Source: The market for tokenized equities has exploded by almost 3,000% in a single year, CoinDesk

Digital Genesis Fund launches European platform for tokenized real‑world infrastructure

Digital Genesis Fund (SICAV‑RAIF) is building a tokenized infrastructure platform for “real‑world” assets from Luxembourg, with its first compartment centered on the MILC media IP and metaverse ecosystem, pre‑financed with roughly EUR 20 million and a content library valued around EUR 35 million. The fund combines institutional structures with Web3 rails, tokenized IP and AI‑enabled production.

Why it matters: This shows tokenization moving into regulated European fund wrappers, using media IP as infrastructure and testing how onchain rails can carry real‑world cash flows at institutional scale.
Source: Digital Genesis Fund Launches European Platform for Tokenized Real-World Infrastructure, GlobeNewswire; Europe's Digital Genesis Fund Targets Tokenization, Web3 And AI, AInvest​​

Initiatives and moves in the Nordics

Bitcoin gets its own “annual address” on the eve of Norway’s central bank speech

Bitcoin Policy Institute Norway is launching the Satoshi Nakamoto Annual Address at Oslo’s National Library on 11 February, the night before the central bank governor’s speech on the economy and fiat monetary policy. The first address will be given by Sygnum Bank deputy CEO and CSO Thomas Eichenberger, bringing a regulated Swiss digital‑asset‑bank perspective to a Norwegian debate that still mostly views bitcoin from the sidelines.​

Why it matters: Putting a bitcoin‑themed annual address directly before Norges Bank’s flagship speech carves out a recurring slot for decentralized money in Norway’s financial calendar and nudges monetary‑policy debates to engage seriously with crypto.​
Source: Bitcoin annual address the day before the Governor of Norway’s central bank delivers her annual address, Kaupr

BTCX launches full‑site redesign focused on frictionless, non‑custodial Bitcoin buying in Sweden and the Nordics

BTCX has rolled out a complete bt.cx redesign, overhauling the Express and Standard exchanges, integrating Swish and other local payment methods, and tightening OTC services above 150,000 SEK after a review of friction points. The platform keeps its direct‑ownership model: customers’ bitcoin goes straight to their own wallet, with no BTCX custody, intermediaries or hidden spread fees.

Why it matters: The redesign reinforces BTCX as a user‑centric, Bitcoin‑first, non‑custodial on‑ramp in Sweden and the broader Nordics, making regulated BTC purchases more accessible while preserving self‑custody and price transparency.
Source: Buy bitcoin with SEK/EUR – BTCX, BTCX

What to watch for

One thing to watch is how markets digest a hawkish‑leaning Fed path and Kevin Warsh’s nomination over the next few weeks: if higher‑for‑longer rate expectations hold, spot bitcoin ETFs sitting at a loss and a retail‑to‑whale handover could keep BTC pinned in a choppy mid‑$70,000s range rather than snapping back with equities and gold.

Why it matters: If repeated macro scares keep producing the same pattern—large holders and regulated ETFs absorbing supply into weakness while smaller investors sell, and stablecoins plus tokenized TradFi assets quietly gain share as “safer” on‑chain rails—then policy on ETFs, stablecoins and tokenized securities, rather than new bitcoin narratives, may end up doing more to define the next phase of digital‑asset market structure.

Stay with Kaupr Today

Thank you for reading Kaupr Today – feel free to forward this briefing to a colleague or reply with news tips and perspectives from across the Nordic and European digital‑finance ecosystem. Wishing you a great week, and welcome back on Tuesday morning for the next edition of Kaupr Today.​

Best regards
Morten Myrstad
Founder & Editor