Kaupr Today - Monday 1 June 2026
Good morning and welcome to Kaupr Today!
The macro picture is complicated right now. US debt and Treasury yields are flashing warning signals not seen since 2007 — but stock markets are hitting all-time highs in Japan, Korea, and the US, driven by AI earnings growth that Bitcoin simply cannot match. Two different stories. Two different engines.
Against that backdrop, regulation is moving fast. The Clarity Act is gaining momentum in Washington — but Jamie Dimon just drew a line in the sand. And in Europe and India, two of the world's most consequential markets are actively building the infrastructure for what comes next.
Stories in today's newsletter:
♦️ America must refinance $10 trillion in debt — the margin for error is gone.
♦️ Stocks hit all-time highs while Bitcoin falls 32% year-on-year — here is why.
♦️ Dimon: "The banks will not accept it" — Clarity Act faces its hardest test.
♦️ Europe's six largest economies push for unified crypto supervision.
♦️ Coinbase goes fully local in India — the world's largest crypto adoption market.
Have a great read!
Morten
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The debt machine — and what it means for Bitcoin
Wall Street expects 14.7% returns — but the warning signals are real
S&P 500 earnings are forecast to grow 25% in 2026, driven by AI spending and tax cuts. The median Wall Street price target implies 14.7% upside from current levels — well above the historical 9.3% average. The warning: the last time the 30-year Treasury yielded 5.18%, the S&P 500 fell 20% over the following year.
Why it matters: Optimism and vulnerability are sitting side by side. The same macro backdrop that is lifting stocks also contains the warning signals that have preceded major selloffs.
Source: Wall Street Says the Stock Market's Return Will Crush the Long-Term Average in the Next Year — Motley Fool
America must refinance $10 trillion in debt — and the margin for error is gone
The 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% in May — its highest in nearly two decades. The US must refinance almost $10 trillion over the next 12 months: $7.5 trillion in maturing bonds plus $2 trillion in new deficit spending. Interest payments already top $1 trillion annually. If yields stay elevated, that figure reaches $2.5 trillion by 2036 — absorbing 30% of all federal revenues.
Why it matters: The US borrowed cheaply for years. Now it is rolling that debt over at far higher rates. There is no longer any margin for error.
Source: Surging Treasury yields expose a brutal truth: America has no margin for error on its $39 trillion debt — Fortune
The Treasury market may be too big to function without support — and Bitcoin is caught in it
US Treasury debt has more than doubled since 2018. Foreign central banks have pulled back. The Fed is shrinking its balance sheet. Hedge funds, asset managers, and stablecoin issuers are absorbing what sovereign buyers once handled. Tether alone holds $141 billion in US Treasuries. Bitcoin's price ceiling has repeatedly been set by yield movements this year.
Why it matters: Bitcoin is embedded in the same sovereign debt dynamics straining the world's most important financial market. When Treasuries break down, crypto feels it.
Source: The US debt machine is getting harder to stabilize — So where does Bitcoin fit in? — CryptoSlate
Stocks hit all-time highs. Bitcoin is down 32% year-on-year. Here is why.
The Nikkei crossed 66,500 for the first time ever. Korea's KOSPI also hit a new all-time high. Bitcoin trades 42% below its lifetime high. Market researchers at XWIN Japan say the reason is structural: stocks run on earnings, Bitcoin runs on liquidity. Right now that liquidity is not arriving — spot Bitcoin ETFs have lost over $3.5 billion since May 15 without a single green day.
Why it matters: "Stocks rise because companies generate profits. Bitcoin rises when new liquidity and new participants return." Until ETF flows recover and on-chain activity picks up, the divergence from equities is likely to continue.
Source: Why Bitcoin Is Falling Behind Record-Breaking Stocks — CryptoPotato
The Clarity Act — momentum meets resistance
Dimon draws a line: "The banks will not accept it"
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon escalated his battle against the Clarity Act's stablecoin provisions on Friday, warning the bill would let stablecoin issuers pay de facto interest without bank-style protections — and predicted it would "eventually blow up." The bill needs 60 Senate votes after being merged between the Banking and Agriculture committees.
Why it matters: If banks mobilise against the stablecoin rewards clause, the 60-vote margin gets a lot harder to reach.
Source: 'The banks will not accept it': Dimon escalates battle over stablecoin rewards in CLARITY Act debate — CoinDesk
Treasury Secretary Bessent pushes Congress — Clarity Act odds rise to 57%
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is pressing both chambers to advance the Clarity Act. "All the nonsense that happens — that's because it's the wild, wild west offshore," he said. Senator Lummis warned that without the bill, crypto exchange customers have no guaranteed right to their assets in bankruptcy. Polymarket puts the odds at 57%.
Why it matters: With the Treasury secretary and key senators aligned, the Clarity Act has real momentum — but Dimon's opposition remains the single biggest obstacle to 60 Senate floor votes.
Europe and India — two markets moving fast
Europe's six largest economies push for unified capital market — crypto included
Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands and Poland met in Berlin to break a decade-old deadlock over Europe's Capital Markets Union. The proposal includes phased transfer of clearing house oversight to ESMA — and explicitly proposes ESMA supervision of significant crypto asset service providers, with the power to block new licences. Ireland and Luxembourg are resisting, fearing capital will migrate to Paris.
Why it matters: Europe's largest economies are linking crypto supervision directly to the Capital Markets Union. For Nordic crypto firms, a stronger ESMA with licensing veto powers would fundamentally change the competitive landscape.
Source: EU's six big economies seek move on capital market union despite Irish worries — The Irish Times
Coinbase goes fully local in India — the world's number one crypto adoption market
Coinbase is launching direct INR rails via India's IMPS payment system from June 1 — the first major global exchange to offer seamless bank-to-crypto transfers for Indian retail users. The move bypasses P2P workarounds and registers Coinbase with India's Financial Intelligence Unit. India ranked first in Chainalysis's 2025 Global Crypto Adoption Index. The market is $3 billion today, projected to reach $14.2 billion by 2034.
Why it matters: India is not an emerging market for crypto — it is already the world's largest adoption market. Coinbase's local currency integration turns that user base from addressable to accessible.
Source: Coinbase makes a major play for India's booming $3 billion crypto market with local currency launch — CoinDesk
The payments and stablecoin race
Airwallex challenges Stripe in yet another vertical — billing is next
Airwallex, the $8 billion Australian-founded fintech, is launching a billing product for invoices, usage tracking, and subscriptions — at no extra cost for existing customers. Payments now account for only 30% of its revenue as it expands toward a full enterprise finance platform. Headquarters split between Singapore and San Francisco, with Europe and North America the next expansion targets.
Why it matters: The global payments race is no longer about who moves money fastest — it is about who owns the full enterprise finance stack. Nordic fintechs should be watching.
Source: Exclusive: Airwallex launches billing product as $8 billion fintech continues to compete with rival Stripe — Fortune
Tether's US stablecoin grew 540% in a month — but still trails far behind
Tether's US-focused stablecoin USAT grew from $22 million to $140.8 million in April — a 540% jump, per a Deloitte-attested reserve report. Despite the surge, USAT remains a minnow: Circle's USDC at $76 billion, PayPal's PYUSD at $5.5 billion, Ripple's RLUSD at $1.7 billion.
Why it matters: Tether dominates global stablecoins with $189 billion in USDT — but its US-regulated product is a distant fourth. The race to own the US institutional stablecoin market is only beginning.
Source: Tether's U.S.-focused stablecoin grows over 500% in a month, but still lags Circle, Ripple, PayPal — CoinDesk
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Wishing you a great Monday — and welcome back tomorrow morning for the next edition of Kaupr Today.
Best regards Morten Myrstad Founder & Editor