From Brasília to Moscow, governments this week put hard clocks on crypto rules that used to move at their own pace — while back home, America's own crypto laws are stuck in neutral. Add a Bernstein call that Robinhood's next growth engine isn't crypto at all, and a bitcoin treasury model finally hitting its limits, and the picture is the same everywhere: the rules are catching up, and the old playbooks are running out of runway.

Some of the stories in today's edition:

💎 Brazil's securities regulator sets a 60-day clock on tokenization rules
💎 Russia's first comprehensive crypto law is two votes from passing
💎 GENIUS Act misses its deadline, CLARITY Act stalls in the Senate
💎 Bernstein lifts Robinhood's target to $160 — on prediction markets, not crypto
💎 Michael Saylor's Strategy loses the premium that powered its entire model

— Morten

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Brazil's CVM launched a working group on July 17 with 60 days to deliver a proposed regulatory framework for tokenized securities, covering registration, custody, trading and settlement. Brazil's real-world asset market already totals over $2 billion.

Why it matters: Brazil is one of the first major emerging-market regulators to put a hard deadline on tokenization rules rather than let the market run ahead of the rulebook — a different sequencing than most Western regulators have followed.

Source: Brazil's securities regulator sets up task force with 60-day deadline for tokenization proposal — CoinDesk

Russia's State Duma takes its final two votes Tuesday on "On Digital Currency and Digital Rights," a bill that licenses exchanges, caps retail crypto purchases at roughly $3,800 a year, and explicitly permits crypto for cross-border trade only. Domestic crypto payments remain banned, and the law takes effect September 1 pending Senate approval and Putin's signature.

Why it matters: The law's cross-border provision gives Russian companies a legal channel to pay foreign partners in crypto, explicitly designed to route around Western sanctions.

Source: Russia's First Comprehensive Crypto Law Is Two Votes Away From Passing — Decrypt

US regulators let the GENIUS Act's one-year deadline for final stablecoin rules expire on July 18 without a single finished regulation — the Treasury, OCC, FDIC, NCUA and Federal Reserve issued only proposals. At the same time, the CLARITY Act remains gridlocked in the Senate over an ethics dispute tied to the Trump family's crypto holdings, with prediction markets sharply cutting the odds of passage this year.

Why it matters: A $310 billion stablecoin market is now operating on proposed rules rather than final ones, while the market-structure bill meant to be crypto's other pillar drifts toward 2027 — the US is simultaneously failing to implement the law it passed and failing to pass the law it still needs.

Source: GENIUS Deadline Missed, CLARITY Act Stalls on Ethics: USA's 2 Crypto Laws Stuck — Crypto Times

Bernstein raised its Robinhood price target to $160, arguing prediction markets will overtake crypto trading as a Robinhood revenue line as soon as this quarter. The bank's Rothera platform has processed billions of contracts since launching in May and models rapid growth in prediction-market revenue through 2028.

Why it matters: A brokerage built its reputation on commission-free stock trading is now betting its next act is letting people trade on whether things will happen at all — a very different business than crypto trading, growing faster than crypto trading currently is.

Source: Bernstein lifts Robinhood target to $160, sees prediction markets revenue overtaking crypto — The Block

Norwegian Block Exchange (NBX) has expanded its existing card-issuing partnership with Tieto Banktech to also cover core banking infrastructure — accounts, ledger and payments processing. NBX already holds an e-money licence and MiCA authorization, and the new platform will support its planned multicurrency Visa card and its longer-term goal of a full banking licence.

Why it matters: NBX is trying to become a genuine "Digital Asset Bank" rather than a crypto exchange with banking features bolted on — and it's building that on proven Nordic banking infrastructure rather than a bespoke system.

Source: NBX picks Tieto Banktech as banking partner — Kaupr

US crypto asset manager Bitwise, with over $11 billion in client assets, has partnered with Swedish fund manager Alfakraft Fonder to build regulated digital asset investment products for institutional investors, structured through Alfakraft's Luxembourg fund infrastructure. The products will target pension funds, insurers and foundations, though timing depends on regulatory approval.

Why it matters: A major US digital-asset manager chose a Swedish partner with roots back to 1998 as its entry point into European institutional distribution — a vote of confidence in Nordic fund infrastructure over building from scratch.

Source: Bitwise Expands in Europe via Swedish Alfakraft — Kaupr

Strategy's enterprise mNAV — the ratio comparing its market value plus debt obligations to the value of its bitcoin holdings — has fallen below 1.0 for the first time, meaning the company's total obligations now exceed what its bitcoin is worth. The "Saylor premium" that let Strategy issue new shares to buy more bitcoin has evaporated as bitcoin has fallen roughly 52% from its October peak.

Why it matters: Strategy's model only worked as long as investors paid above-NAV prices for leveraged bitcoin exposure — hundreds of imitator treasury companies built on the same logic have never faced a real test of what happens when that premium disappears.

Source: Michael Saylor's Bitcoin Treasury Company Strategy Is Falling Apart — Barchart

BitMine Chairman Tom Lee said the company repurchased roughly $86 million in shares last week, redirecting capital that would otherwise have gone toward buying ether — one of its smallest weekly ETH purchases since launching its treasury strategy in mid-2025. BitMine still holds nearly 5% of Ethereum's circulating supply.

Why it matters: BitMine choosing to buy back its own stock rather than accelerate toward its 5% ETH ownership target signals management now sees more value in supporting the share price than in further accumulation — a similar signal to what's happening at Strategy.

Source: Tom Lee's Bitmine slowed ether purchases as it bought back $86 million in stock — CoinDesk

Investor Chamath Palihapitiya said on the All-In podcast that a combined Stripe-PayPal would let both companies push transactions through their own stablecoin rails — PayPal's PYUSD and Stripe's ties to Open USD — "skipping the card networks entirely." PayPal's board formally rejected Stripe and Advent's offer at a specially convened meeting, pushing for a higher price, according to Reuters sources.

Why it matters: A formal rejection is a stronger signal than last week's "inadequate" comment — it suggests PayPal's board wants real negotiation, not just a higher number, before this deal moves forward.

Source: Chamath Says Stripe's PayPal Deal Is 'a Shot Across the Bow' for Visa and Mastercard — Benzinga

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Wishing you a great Tuesday — and welcome back tomorrow morning for the next edition of Kaupr Daily. Kaupr Digest returns this weekend.

Best regards, Morten Myrstad Founder & Editor