Welcome to Kaupr Today

Good morning. Crypto, AI and macro markets are converging into the same stress test. As Bitcoin whipsaws around key levels and derivatives positioning stretches, Big Tech is levering up for an AI arms race financed through century bonds and aggressive capex. At the same time, policymakers are quietly redesigning the plumbing: from the Fed sketching crypto‑specific margin rules to central banks shifting into gold and investors debating whether bitcoin belongs alongside it as a reserve asset. And in Asia, stablecoins are moving from speculative rails to embedded banking infrastructure, with licensing regimes and pilots turning tokenized money into real‑world payment and settlement layers.

Have a good read,
Morten

Crypto, AI, bonds & derivates

Short positions on centralized exchanges hit extremes, signaling a potential major bottom for bitcoin
Cryptopolitan reports that aggregate bitcoin short positions on centralized exchanges have spiked to some of the highest levels seen in recent cycles, coinciding with extreme fear readings and a sharp drawdown that has already wiped out billions in leveraged long positions. The article argues that this buildup of bearish leverage, combined with deeply oversold technicals and heavy derivatives positioning, makes the market vulnerable to a violent short squeeze if spot demand stabilizes or ETF outflows slow.

Why it matters: When short positioning reaches extreme levels during periods of capitulation, history shows it often marks or precedes major cycle bottoms, as even modest price rebounds can trigger cascading liquidations and fuel powerful relief rallies.

Source: Short positions on CEXs hit extreme levels marking a major bottom for Bitcoin, Cryptopolitan

Why software stocks are selling off in the age of AI
deVere Group explains that the recent plunge in software stocks reflects a brutal repricing of how much companies can realistically charge in an AI-first world, as powerful AI agents from firms like Anthropic start automating tasks that once justified expensive SaaS subscriptions, from legal review and data analysis to research and compliance. Investors are questioning whether traditional software business models still have the pricing power and margins they once enjoyed, leading to sharp multiple compression even for firms with solid revenues, and shifting market focus from innovation stories to proof that AI-era software can defend profits rather than see them eroded.

Why it matters: The selloff shows that AI is no longer just a tailwind for software valuations but a disruptive force that could cap what many SaaS and information platforms can charge, forcing investors to distinguish between AI-resilient “infrastructure winners” and software companies whose pricing power is structurally at risk.

Source: Why are software stocks down?, deVere Group

Oracle insists ‘all is well’ after $300 billion OpenAI shock unnerves investors
The Times of India reports that Oracle has been on a communications blitz to reassure employees and shareholders after the market reacted nervously to its 300 billion dollar cloud deal with OpenAI and reports that up to 30,000 jobs could be cut to fund its massive AI data center build‑out. In public statements and social posts, Oracle has stressed that the Nvidia–OpenAI arrangement does not affect its own contract, that it remains confident in OpenAI’s ability to raise funds and meet obligations, and that Oracle can repurpose AI infrastructure for more than 700 other customers if needed, even as questions mount over leverage, capex and the sustainability of AI economics.

Why it matters: The story captures how Oracle’s outsized exposure to a single AI client has turned its OpenAI deal into a litmus test for the broader AI investment boom, with any cracks in the economics risking not just Oracle’s balance sheet but confidence in trillion‑dollar AI infrastructure bets more broadly.

Source: Oracle can’t stop explaining ‘all is well’ after $300 billion OpenAI shock, says ‘we are also…’, The Times of India

Alphabet’s 100-year bond stokes fears of debt-fueled AI arms race

Alphabet has issued a 1 billion pound, 100-year sterling bond as part of a roughly 20 billion dollar multi-currency debt raise to fund massive AI and data center investments, drawing demand nearly 10 times the offer from long-term investors such as insurers and pension funds. Strategists say the century bond — highly unusual for a tech company — is a sign of late-cycle exuberance in credit markets, as AI hyperscalers collectively move toward trillions of dollars in debt issuance, raising questions about whether future cash flows will justify such long-duration leverage.

Why it matters: The deal underscores how aggressively big tech is borrowing to stay ahead in the AI race, while highlighting emerging credit risk if AI returns disappoint, making Alphabet’s 100-year bond a symbolic test of how sustainable debt-fueled AI expansion really is.

Source: Why Alphabet’s 100-year sterling bond is raising new fears over debt-fuelled AI arms race, CNBC

Coinbase misses Q4 revenue expectations but doubles down on stablecoins, prediction markets and ‘everything exchange’ strategy

Investor’s Business Daily reports that Coinbase’s Q4 2025 revenue came in below Wall Street expectations at around $1.78 billion, with EPS of $0.66 missing forecasts and COIN stock falling in after-hours trading as weaker trading volumes and a late-year crypto downturn weighed on transaction fees. On the earnings call, CEO Brian Armstrong and his team emphasized three 2026 priorities: growing the “Everything Exchange” by expanding into stocks, commodities and prediction markets; scaling stablecoins and payments on the back of USDC’s roughly $75 billion market cap and new GENIUS/CLARITY Act rules; and driving more economic activity on-chain via the Base L2 and tokenized assets.

Why it matters: The update shows Coinbase trying to pivot from a pure trading-cycle stock to a broader financial infrastructure play, using stablecoins, prediction markets and multi-asset trading to diversify revenue and embed itself more deeply into both retail and institutional crypto usage.

Source: Coinbase Delivers Q4 Revenue Miss Amid Crypto Downturn, But Bets Big on Stablecoins and Prediction Markets, Investor’s Business Daily

Federal Reserve proposes treating crypto as its own asset class for derivatives margin rules

Cryptonews reports that a new Federal Reserve working paper proposes classifying cryptocurrencies as a distinct asset class for initial margin calculations on uncleared derivatives, arguing that existing frameworks like the Standardized Initial Margin Model underestimate crypto’s volatility and counterparty risk. The paper suggests assigning separate risk weights to “floating” cryptoassets such as bitcoin and ether and to “pegged” assets like stablecoins, and calls for the creation of a benchmark crypto index to calibrate margin requirements more precisely, signaling a shift from simply warning about crypto risks to designing tools that integrate it into regulated markets.

Why it matters: By designing a dedicated margin framework for crypto-linked derivatives, the Fed is laying groundwork for more institutional participation in crypto markets while tightening risk controls, an important step toward treating digital assets as a permanent part of the financial system rather than a temporary anomaly.

Source: U.S. Federal Reserve Proposes Crypto Derivatives Rules in 2026, Cryptonews

The worlds reserve assets - gold or bitcoin?

David Einhorn says gold is replacing U.S. Treasurys as the world’s reserve asset

Greenlight Capital’s David Einhorn argues that gold is increasingly supplanting U.S. Treasurys as the leading global reserve asset, as central banks respond to mounting concerns over America’s fiscal trajectory, trade policy and the risk of sanctions by steadily shifting their holdings from dollar debt into bullion. He links the move to the rise of the so‑called “debasement trade,” where investors and policymakers buy hard assets like gold as a hedge against the long‑term erosion of fiat currencies, and says he expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates “substantially more” than markets currently anticipate, which would further support gold prices.

Why it matters: Einhorn’s view underscores how worries about U.S. deficits, weaponized sanctions and de‑dollarization are feeding a structural bid for gold, reinforcing its role as a neutral store of value at a time when government bonds and major currencies look less reliable as reserve assets.

Source: David Einhorn says gold is replacing U.S. Treasurys as a global reserve asset, Business Insider

China, Poland and Türkiye top the list of central bank gold buyers since 2020

Visual Capitalist’s ranking of central bank activity since 2020 shows China, Poland and Türkiye as the largest net buyers of gold over the period, with countries like India, Brazil, Azerbaijan, Japan and Thailand also significantly adding to their reserves as prices have surged more than 230%. At the same time, a smaller group of countries have been net sellers, trimming their holdings as others continue to stockpile, contributing to one of the strongest multi‑year waves of official sector gold buying in modern history.

Why it matters: The data highlights how central banks, especially in emerging markets, are accelerating efforts to diversify away from fiat currencies and the U.S. dollar by building up gold reserves, reinforcing gold’s role as a strategic hedge in a more fragmented global financial system.

Source: Ranked: The Countries Buying (and Selling) the Most Gold Since 2020, Visual Capitalist

Stablecoins - look to Asia

Asia is quietly turning stablecoins into banking infrastructure
The Economist reports how stablecoins are increasingly being used as de facto banking rails across Asia, with freelancers and migrant workers in places like Pakistan and the Philippines using dollar-pegged tokens on their phones to receive payments instantly and avoid high wire-transfer fees, even in countries such as India that tax crypto heavily. The article notes that while speculative crypto trading has cooled, regulators in hubs like Singapore and Hong Kong are building licensing regimes that let payment firms and banks plug stablecoins into cross-border transfers and merchant payments, effectively turning these tokens into 24/7 settlement layers for the region’s digital economy.

Why it matters: Asia’s bottom-up adoption and regulatory experimentation show how stablecoins can evolve from a crypto side-bet into core payments and banking infrastructure, potentially reshaping remittances, trade finance and everyday payments far beyond the region.

Source: Asia is turning stablecoins into banking infrastructure, The Economist

Hong Kong set to issue first stablecoin licenses in March under new HKMA regime

Hong Kong’s Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo-po said the city will issue its first stablecoin issuer licenses in March 2026, granting only a small number of approvals to firms with real-world use cases, credible and sustainable business models, and strong regulatory compliance capabilities under the Stablecoins Ordinance that took effect in August 2025. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority is close to finishing its review of dozens of applications and is also finalizing a parallel licensing regime for digital asset custodians and dealers, part of a broader push to support tokenization, 24/7 payments and Web3 development while keeping systemic and consumer risks in check.

Why it matters: The move positions Hong Kong as one of the first major financial centers with a full licensing framework for fiat-referenced stablecoins, aiming to show that tightly supervised stablecoin issuers can safely plug into mainstream payments and tokenized markets.

Source: Hong Kong Ready to Issue First Stablecoin Licenses in March, Financial Secretary Says, CoinDesk

Malaysia’s central bank to pilot three ringgit stablecoin and tokenized deposit initiatives in 2026

Bank Negara Malaysia will launch three pilot projects in 2026 to test ringgit-denominated stablecoins and tokenized deposits under its Digital Asset Innovation Hub, focusing on wholesale payment use cases such as domestic settlement, cross-border flows and tokenized asset settlement. The pilots, involving partners including Standard Chartered, Capital A, Maybank and CIMB, are designed to assess operational efficiencies, risk management and the impact on monetary and financial stability, with the central bank aiming to issue clearer rules for ringgit stablecoins and tokenized deposits by the end of 2026 and to align the work with its wholesale CBDC research and broader asset-tokenization roadmap.

Why it matters: Malaysia is positioning itself as a regional testbed for regulated stablecoins and tokenized bank money, using sandboxes to turn experiments in wholesale payments into potential production infrastructure that could later connect to CBDCs and cross-border digital asset networks.

Source: Malaysia’s central bank to launch three stablecoin and tokenized deposit initiatives in 2026, The Block

What to watch for

Watch how the extreme short positioning in bitcoin, the AI century‑bond binge and Asia’s stablecoin experiments interact: a short squeeze in BTC, any wobble in long‑duration AI debt, or a policy misstep in key Asian hubs could all flip today’s “orderly” stress into a sharper cross‑asset volatility spike.

Why it matters: If shorts unwind violently while AI debt stays bid and Asian stablecoin rails keep maturing, you get a regime where crypto, AI infra and tokenized money reinforce each other as core market plumbing instead of a speculative sideshow; if, instead, AI debt or stablecoin policy cracks, today’s positioning could mark the start of a broader de‑risking that delays the shift from tradeable narratives to durable, institutional‑grade infrastructure

Share Kaupr Today

Thank you for reading Kaupr Today. If you find this briefing useful, please share it with a colleague or friend who should be following Nordic and European digital‑finance news more closely. Wishing you a great Friday and weekend — and welcome back on Monday morning for the next edition of Kaupr Today.

If you want to go deeper and get a more umbrella‑level view of the digital transformation reshaping finance, make sure you’re subscribed to our Future of Finance Premium newsletter.

Best regards
Morten Myrstad
Founder & Editor