Welcome to Kaupr Today

Good morning. Bitcoin is range‑bound as war risk and delayed Fed cuts keep real yields high and traders waiting for a macro jolt. In the background, regulators and payments giants are wiring stablecoins into real‑world finance, while the Nordics step up with tougher crypto‑crime defences, leadership changes at Firi and this week’s “Diversity in Crypto in the Nordics 2026” live event putting inclusion on the regional agenda.

Have a good read,
Morten

Kaupr Today is supported by Bybit, as one of our Kaupr TV Season Partners.

Bitcoin: Treads water and waiting for signals

Bitcoin treads water as war risk rises and rate cuts look distant

Analysts say Bitcoin is stuck around the mid‑60,000‑dollar area as Middle East war risk collides with a macro backdrop where the Federal Reserve looks in no rush to cut rates, keeping real yields elevated and risk appetite muted. Flows into spot ETFs have steadied but not surged, and positioning remains cautious, with traders waiting on clearer signals from bonds and central banks before committing to a new bullish or bearish leg.​

Why it matters: The standoff between rising geopolitical risk and delayed policy easing leaves BTC in a holding pattern, suggesting the next decisive move is likely to be triggered by an external macro shock rather than crypto‑native news.

Source: Bitcoin treads water as war risk rises and rate cuts look distant: analysts, The Block

The crypto market is waiting for a signal from outside

FXStreet notes that total crypto market cap is roughly flat on the week despite the Iran shock, with Bitcoin swinging between 63,000 and 66,000 dollars and staying stuck in the middle of its recent range. Analyst Alexander Kuptsikevich argues crypto remains in a bear market dominated by retail traders, with investors in “wait‑and‑see” mode and watching oil, gold, bonds and central banks for direction.

Why it matters: The piece portrays current price action as range‑bound chop driven more by geopolitics and macro than crypto‑native catalysts, implying the next big move will likely come from an external shock or policy signal.

Source: The crypto market is waiting for a signal from outside, FXStreet

Waiting for clarity & political breakthroughs

Crypto’s next rally may depend on one vote in Washington

Coinpedia highlights JPMorgan’s view that the U.S. Digital Asset Market Structure CLARITY Act could be a major second‑half catalyst for crypto if it clears the Senate, by clarifying SEC vs CFTC oversight and giving institutions a cleaner framework to hold and trade Bitcoin and Ether.

Why it matters: With prices and volumes subdued, the piece casts upcoming U.S. crypto legislation as a potential turning point where legal clarity — rather than hype — determines whether renewed institutional participation powers the next big move in Bitcoin and the broader market.

Source: Crypto’s Next Rally May Depend on One Vote in Washington, Coinpedia via TradingView

Crypto world faces growing pressure to relent on stablecoin rewards to win bigger prize

CoinDesk reports that US bank lobbyists and regulators are targeting high‑yield stablecoin reward programs, arguing they could drain deposits from traditional banks, with the OCC proposing tighter rules as the Clarity Act emerges as crypto’s top legislative priority. Industry players like Coinbase are facing pressure to scale back stablecoin yields on idle balances in exchange for a clearer, more durable legal framework for US stablecoins and the broader crypto market.

Why it matters: The debate pits short‑term revenue from stablecoin rewards against the longer‑term prize of regulatory clarity, bank partnerships and mainstream adoption, while banks push to protect their deposit base from tokenized dollar rivals.

Source: Crypto world faces growing pressure to relent on stablecoin rewards to win bigger prize, CoinDesk

Payments being redefined by stablecoins

Visa and Stripe’s Bridge are turning stablecoins into something you can swipe at the checkout

Visa is expanding its partnership with Stripe‑owned Bridge so that stablecoin‑backed Visa cards can roll out to more than 100 countries across Europe, Asia and Africa, up from 18 markets today. The cards let users spend stablecoin balances held in wallets like Phantom or MetaMask at any of Visa’s 175 million merchant locations, while settlement can happen onchain via Lead Bank so merchants still see a normal Visa transaction with no extra integration work.

Source: Visa to expand card partnership with Stripe’s Bridge to over 100 countries, Fortune

Ripple redefines payments with end-to-end stablecoin platform and global customer momentum

Ripple has expanded Ripple Payments into a licensed, end‑to‑end platform that lets enterprises collect, hold, exchange and pay out in both fiat and stablecoins on a single stack, drawing on its Palisade and Rail acquisitions. The company says it is now live in 60+ markets, has processed over 100 billion dollars in volume, and is targeting fintechs and financial institutions that want unified global rails instead of stitching together multiple vendors.

Why it matters: Ripple is pitching itself as full‑stack infrastructure for institutional stablecoin and fiat flows, not just a single cross‑border payments product.

Source: Ripple Redefines Payments with End-to-End Stablecoin Platform and Global Customer Momentum, Ripple / Business Wire

European bank consortium targets 2026 launch for euro-backed stablecoin

Qivalis, a consortium of around a dozen major European banks including BNP Paribas, ING, UniCredit, CaixaBank, SEB and BBVA, is aiming to launch a MiCA‑compliant euro stablecoin in the second half of 2026, backed 1:1 by a mix of euro bank deposits and short‑term euro‑area sovereign bonds. The Amsterdam‑based issuer is seeking an Electronic Money Institution licence from the Dutch central bank, positioning the token as institutional rails for 24/7 payments, tokenized asset settlement and programmable finance. In the Nordics SEB and Danske Bank are members of the consortium.

Why it matters: The project seeks to give Europe a regulated, bank‑backed euro stablecoin to rival the dollar‑pegged tokens that dominate on‑chain liquidity, plugging EU monetary sovereignty and MiCA directly into digital asset market infrastructure.

Source: European bank consortium targets 2026 launch for euro-backed stablecoin: report, The Block

Stablecoin and blockchain bank news in Asia

HSBC signals intent to join Hong Kong’s new stablecoin regime

HSBC CFO Georges Elhedery says the bank wants to “play a role” in Hong Kong’s digital innovation push and is in active talks with regulators about the city’s new stablecoin licensing regime, without confirming a formal application.

Why it matters: Interest from one of the world’s largest banks suggests Hong Kong’s rules are pulling mainstream finance into regulated stablecoins, bolstering the city’s digital asset hub ambitions.

Source: HSBC signals intent to join Hong Kong’s stablecoin regime amid digital hub push, South China Morning Pos​

Bank of Japan tests blockchain for faster, safer money transfers

At the FIN/SUM 2026 conference, Bank of Japan governor Kazuo Ueda announced a blockchain sandbox to test settling central bank money and securities on distributed ledgers, aiming for 24/7 instant settlement and greater resilience.

Why it matters: The sandbox signals that a major central bank is exploring blockchain for core wholesale money and securities, suggesting the next phase of digital assets may be driven by upgrades to financial market plumbing rather than retail CBDCs.

Source: Bank of Japan Tests Blockchain for Faster, Safer Money Transfers, Coinpedia

Nordic news and events

From KPMG to Nordic Financial CERT: Johanne Andresen strengthens the Nordic defence against financial crime

After nearly four years building KPMG Norway’s crypto and blockchain practice, financial crime specialist Johanne Andresen is joining Nordic Financial CERT to help banks and payment firms coordinate against fraud, money laundering and crypto‑related crime.

Why it matters: The move shows Nordic institutions are stepping up their crypto‑crime defences, pulling in specialist talent from both Big Four consulting and law enforcement into a shared regional shield.

Source: From KPMG to Nordic Financial CERT: Johanne Andresen strengthens the Nordic defence against financial crime, Kaupr

Firi’s COO steps down – just over a year after taking on the role

Marte Eriksen Skoglund is stepping down as COO of Norwegian crypto exchange Firi a little over a year after taking the position, and plans a short break before new opportunities outside fintech.​

Why it matters: The move highlights continued leadership turnover at one of Norway’s main retail crypto platforms, even as Firi recruits highly skilled leaders to steer the company through post‑crypto‑winter consolidation, tighter regulation and a more sustainability‑focused growth strategy.

Source: Firi’s COO steps down – just over a year after taking on the role, Kaupr

Diversity in Crypto in the Nordics 2026 is a virtual live event taking place on 06.03.2026 from 15:00 to 17:00 CET, bringing together voices from across the Nordic crypto ecosystem to discuss how to build a more inclusive and representative space. The session will be streamed simultaneously on LinkedIn, YouTube, and Kaupr.io, and organizers invite Nordic associations, communities, and brands to get involved as supporters or partners by reaching out to the team behind the initiative.

Source: Diversity in Crypto in the Nordics 2026, LinkedIn Events

What to watch for

Watch whether Bitcoin can actually build a higher‑low base instead of just drifting, with futures and options moving from defensive to more neutral positioning.

Why it matters: A solid base formed while sentiment stays cautious — and while banks and payment players quietly ramp up stablecoin rails — can turn the next macro shock into the spark for a sharp, widely missed move.

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Best regards
Morten Myrstad
Founder & Editor