Welcome to Kaupr Today

Good morning! Bitcoin sets the tone for today’s Kaupr Today: a bruising start to the year, deepening bearish sentiment, and mounting macro and geopolitical tension—but also early signs of what some see as potential accumulation zones for long‑term players.

As we start the new week, we track how BTC’s slide below 65k, heavy whale selling and historic fear readings collide with Trump’s new tariff plans, Middle East risk and weak liquidity to pressure prices, while on‑chain signals and high‑conviction voices highlight that the same stress is creating possible buying opportunities that more patient investors are watching closely.

Have a good read,
Morten

Kaupr Today is supported by Bybit, as one of our Season Partners.

Whales, geopolitics and regulation

Bitcoin drops below $65,000 as whales drive selling and recent buyers capitulate

Bitcoin has fallen about 5% to roughly $64,700 as the new week begins, sliding from the $67,000 range and trading alongside weaker US equity futures while gold and silver rally sharply. On-chain data from Glassnode shows recent buyers realized losses of up to –$1.24 billion per day on February 6, now moderating to about –$0.48 billion per day, indicating panic selling has cooled but newer investors are still locking in losses typical of bottom‑building phases. CryptoQuant data finds exchange whale ratio near 0.64, the highest since 2015, with around two‑thirds of BTC inflows coming from just 10 largest deposits, altcoin deposits rising, and stablecoin inflows shrinking from $616 million in November to $27 million, all signaling large‑holder distribution amid thinner liquidity.​

Why it matters: The combination of heavy realized losses for recent buyers, dominant selling from large holders and shrinking stablecoin dry powder suggests Bitcoin is in a fragile base‑building regime where support around $65,000 is critical, and volatility could stay elevated across BTC and altcoins.​

Source: Bitcoin slides 5%, tumbling below $65,000 as whale selling grows and recent buyers lock in losses, CryptoNews

Bitcoin stuck below $70,000 as geopolitical and regulatory headwinds build

Bitcoin has failed multiple times to break above $70,000 and is down about 28% in February, trading around $67,000–$68,000 as geopolitical tensions and delays to the U.S. Clarity Act weigh on sentiment. Technical analysis points to a confirmed bearish symmetrical triangle breakout, with BTC below the 50-period moving average, key support at $65,650 under threat, and indicators such as RSI near 32 and negative volume balance signaling weak demand. Corporate holders like MicroStrategy and Metaplanet sit on billions in unrealized losses while ETF outflows and lower futures open interest highlight fading institutional appetite.​

Why it matters: The combination of geopolitical risk, stalled US crypto legislation and deteriorating technicals suggests Bitcoin’s role is skewing back toward high‑beta risk asset rather than digital safe haven, raising the risk of deeper downside if $65,000 support breaks.​

Source: Bitcoin Struggles to Break Above $70,000 Amid Geopolitical Tensions and Regulatory Delays, AInvest

Bitcoin ETFs flows and Bitcoin sentiment

Bitcoin ETF outflows highlight lingering post‑crash institutional caution

U.S.-noterte spot‑bitcoin‑ETF‑er har sett nær 3,8 milliarder dollar i uttak de siste fem ukene, den lengste sammenhengende outflow‑perioden siden februar 2025. BlackRocks IBIT har alene registrert rundt 2,13 milliarder dollar i innløsninger i samme periode, noe som viser at selv den største bitcoin‑ETF‑en møter tydelig salgspress. Outflows underscore persistent institutional wariness toward bitcoin after the early October crash.

Why it matters: Den historiske uttaksstrømmen svekker narrativet om stabil institusjonell etterspørsel etter bitcoin, og peker mot et marked der profesjonelle investorer fortsatt reduserer risiko i regulerte produkter i stedet for å bruke ETF‑ene til å «kjøpe dippen».

Source: Bitcoin ETFs bleed $3.8 billion in historic five-week outflow streak, CoinDesk

Bitcoin sentiment plunges below Covid and FTX panic levels

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has dropped into “extreme fear,” with Bitcoin sentiment now below levels seen during the Covid crash and the FTX collapse, reflecting heightened panic and heavy selling across the market. Phemex notes that similar extremes in past cycles have often preceded strong rebounds, as long‑term investors accumulated BTC while short‑term traders capitulated. Despite sharp volatility and uncertainty, long‑term supporters argue that Bitcoin’s core fundamentals and adoption trends remain intact.​

Why it matters: Historically, extreme fear readings have tended to align with major accumulation zones, suggesting that while risks remain, current sentiment could mark the later stages of a downside phase for investors with a long time horizon.​

Source: Bitcoin Sentiment Plummets, Potential Buying Opportunity, Phemex

Looking for buy signals?

Bitcoin indicator flashes rare “generational” buy signal

Bitcoin’s short-term Sharpe ratio has plunged to around -38.38, a level that on-chain analysts say has only occurred four times in BTC’s history and previously aligned with major market bottoms in 2015, 2019, and late 2022. The indicator, which measures returns relative to volatility, suggests recent losses have been extreme versus price swings, often seen when sellers are exhausted after capitulation and weak sentiment. With Bitcoin down roughly 50% from its October 2025 all-time high near $126,200 to about $65,700, analysts caution that while past extremes preceded sharp recoveries, macro shocks and liquidity tightening could still keep pressure on prices.​

Why it matters: If this historic Sharpe ratio pattern holds, Bitcoin may be nearing a cyclical inflection point where long-term buyers start accumulating into weakness, with potential implications for broader crypto risk appetite and flows into BTC-linked products.​

Source: Bitcoin Enters Historic Buying Zone, Indicator Suggests, TradingView

Robert Kiyosaki buys more Bitcoin at $67,000 despite “crash”

“Rich Dad Poor Dad” author Robert Kiyosaki says he bought one Bitcoin for $67,000 even as he describes the market as “crashing,” arguing that rising U.S. debt will force the Federal Reserve to print more “fake dollars” and that Bitcoin’s fixed 21 million supply makes it superior hard money. With U.S. federal debt above $34 trillion and interest costs climbing, he sees more monetary expansion ahead and treats Bitcoin as a digital counterpart to gold and silver, which he also holds. Kiyosaki, who owns BTC and ETH alongside physical metals, maintains long‑term price targets of $250,000 for Bitcoin, $27,000 for gold, and $100 for silver, and even suggests Bitcoin could eventually surpass gold once its full supply is mined around 2140.​

Why it matters: Kiyosaki’s continued buying into weakness highlights how some high‑profile macro commentators view Bitcoin less as a short‑term trade and more as a long‑duration hedge against debt, inflation and fiat debasement, potentially reinforcing the “digital gold” narrative for retail investors.​

Source: 3 Reasons Robert Kiyosaki Is Still Buying Bitcoin While Most Investors Are Selling, MEXC News

Bad year start and losing streak on record

Bitcoin and Ethereum hit worst year‑start in a decade, despite strong stocks and gold

Bitcoin has dropped about 24% since Jan. 1 to roughly $67,000, while Ethereum is down around 34% to about $2,000, marking their worst year‑to‑date performance since at least 2013 for BTC and 2014 for ETH based on CoinGecko data. The slump comes even as traditional markets show resilience: since January, the S&P 500 is up about 0.4%, the Dow Jones has gained 2.3%, and metals are rallying, with gold up roughly 17% and silver about 14% after recovering from a sudden drop earlier in the year. Some market observers see room for a crypto rebound given the divergence from equities and strong performance in other risk and safe‑haven assets.

Why it matters: The contrast between crypto’s steep drawdown and rising stocks and metals highlights a breakdown in the usual correlations, suggesting that crypto‑specific factors—like positioning, leverage, and regulatory uncertainty—are driving the sell‑off and could also set the stage for an outsized recovery if sentiment turns.

Source: Bitcoin and Ethereum are off to their worst start of the year in a decade—but some see a rebound in sight, AOL

Bitcoin nears second‑longest monthly losing streak on record

Bitcoin is on track for a fifth straight monthly loss since October, a slide that would mark the second‑longest monthly losing streak in its 15‑year history if it continues through month‑end, according to CoinGlass data reported by BitcoinWorld. Analysts cite persistent inflation, higher global interest rates and regulatory uncertainty as key drivers of sustained selling pressure, alongside weaker whale accumulation and mixed exchange flow signals. The last time Bitcoin saw a longer run of monthly declines was a six‑month stretch from August 2018 to January 2019 during the post‑ICO bear market, while earlier four‑month slumps in 2014 were tied to the Mt. Gox collapse.​

Why it matters: A potential five‑month losing streak suggests the current downturn is being shaped by structural macro and regulatory forces rather than just short‑term sentiment, raising the stakes for whether Bitcoin’s next move is a deeper bear phase or a base for the next cycle.​

Source: Bitcoin’s Alarming Slide: On Track for Fifth Straight Month of Losses, Nears Historic Losing Streak, MEXC News

Longterm belief in Bitcoin and bitcoinization

“Bitcoin is a binary bet: hyperbitcoinization or failure”

In this rant, Knut Svanholm argues that Bitcoin’s core premise is strict decentralization and minimal change, making it a binary bet that either collapses or ushers in global hyperbitcoinization. He says the network’s fate rests on individual choices—what hardware and software to use, how to hold and spend coins—and warns that if a few entities can reliably capture Bitcoin, “it’s game over” for the monetary revolution. Positioning committed users as a “night’s watch” guarding the chain, he urges them not to let fear push them into behavior that centralizes or neuters Bitcoin’s founding vision.

Why it matters: The rant underscores that Bitcoin’s long‑term success depends less on price action and more on whether users act in ways that preserve decentralization, credible scarcity and resistance to capture, especially during periods of fear and uncertainty.

Source: “What are you afraid of?” hyperbitcoinization rant by Knut Svanholm

Nordic web3 news and events

Kaupr TV Live returns 27 February with Nordic Web3 focus

Supported by our Season Partners:
BTCX ▪ BYBIT ▪. COINMOTION ▪ K33

On Friday 27 February 2026, from 12:00–13:00 CET, Kaupr TV Live is back with a new live show from its professional studio aimed at investors, professionals and builders seeking real signal and insight in the digital economy. Hosted by founder and Editor-in-Chief Morten Myrstad with co-host Leon Aleksander Karlsen Solbakken, the show will deliver news, interviews and conversations that put Web3 and digital finance in a Nordic and European context, extending Kaupr’s January relaunch format into a recurring live video experience. Viewers can register via LinkedIn or Luma for reminders and streaming links, and subscribe to Kaupr Today to receive show updates alongside daily news.​

Why it matters: Kaupr TV Live strengthens Kaupr’s position as a Nordic Web3 media hub by tying together live video, news, newsletters and events, giving the region’s digital finance and blockchain community a dedicated, multi-channel source of insight.​

Source: Kaupr TV Live Returns 27 February With News & Guests, Kaupr

What to watch for

What to look out for: Watch Bitcoin’s reaction to new macro headlines, Trump’s tariff moves and Middle East risk as the market digests extreme fear readings, historic losing streaks and mixed on‑chain “buy zone” signals.

Why it matters: The next leg—stabilisation, sharp rebound or deeper drawdown—will show whether crypto is still being treated as a risk asset under pressure, or whether long‑term adoption and structural demand are starting to overpower short‑term sentiment.

Share Kaupr Today

Thank you for reading Kaupr Today. If you find this briefing useful, please share it with a colleague or friend who should be following Nordic and European digital‑finance news more closely. Wishing you a great Week — and welcome back on Tuesday morning for the next edition of Kaupr Today.

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Best regards
Morten Myrstad
Founder & Editor