Good morning and welcome to Kaupr Today!

We are back in Oslo after two days at the Nordic Blockchain Conference in Stockholm. If you missed our live coverage, you will find key highlights from talks and panel discussions on our LinkedIn page.

Good morning and welcome to Kaupr Today — back in Oslo after two days at the Nordic Blockchain Conference in Stockholm!

Bitcoin is under serious pressure this week — and it is not just macro. The narrative itself is cracking. Meanwhile the biggest IPO wave in a decade is building, smart money is rotating, and from the conference floor in Stockholm comes a bold argument: the old monetary system simply won't survive the AI age.

A lot happened this week. Here is what you need to know.

♦️ Bitcoin under pressure — macro, Strategy, and the IPO drain. ♦️ Anthropic overtakes OpenAI — and SpaceX files for a $2 trillion debut. ♦️ Capital is rotating out of Bitcoin and Ether — into something else. ♦️ From NBC Stockholm: the monetary system and the AI age. ♦️ Firi delivers profit for the second year running — and heads for Sweden.

Have a great read — and a great weekend!

Morten

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Bitcoin slid back below $73,000 despite a draft US-Iran ceasefire agreement — stocks rallied, crypto didn't. PCE inflation rose to 3.8% year-over-year in April, its highest in nearly three years. Bitcoin ETFs saw $733 million in outflows Wednesday, on track to beat last week's $1.26 billion.

Why it matters: When stocks rally on peace news and crypto doesn't follow, it raises a direct question about what Bitcoin's role in portfolios actually is right now.

Source: Bitcoin pinned below $73,000 despite potential U.S.-Iran deal news — CoinDesk

Analyst Markus Thielen of 10xResearch warns Strategy's cash runway to cover its $1.7 billion in annual dividends has collapsed to 6.1 months — down from 16. Saylor has acknowledged the company will "probably sell some bitcoin soon." Thielen: Strategy's six-year BTC accumulation provided "narrative cover for billions more in institutional inflows." When that anchor starts selling, "it materially weakens the bitcoin bull case."

Why it matters: Strategy is a symbol that inspired dozens of corporate treasury copycats. When the symbol starts selling, the story changes.

Source: Bitcoin hits 6-week low as Strategy's cash runway has collapsed to 6 months — Sherwood News

Spot BTC ETFs posted seven consecutive days of outflows totalling over $1.88 billion. Analyst Ted Pillows: "AI will continue to drain liquidity from crypto. Especially with the upcoming IPOs." SpaceX targets an $80 billion raise, OpenAI lists in September, Anthropic is close behind — the most watched potential listings in a decade.

Why it matters: Bitcoin is not just losing to macro headwinds — it is losing to narrative. The IPO calendar is now a headwind.

Source: Bitcoin Falls Below $75K – SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic IPOs Are 'Draining' Liquidity From Crypto — Yahoo Finance / Stocktwits

Anthropic raised $65 billion at a $965 billion valuation — eclipsing OpenAI's $852 billion for the first time. Led by Altimeter, Dragoneer, Greenoaks, and Sequoia. Revenue run rate: $47 billion, up from $30 billion earlier this year. OpenAI files its IPO prospectus imminently, targeting September. Anthropic's IPO is advancing.

Why it matters: Two companies approaching a combined $2 trillion in valuation are heading for public markets simultaneously. The capital to absorb these listings will come from somewhere.

Source: Anthropic tops OpenAI as most valuable AI startup, nears $1 trillion valuation — CNBC

SpaceX filed its S-1 targeting a $1.75–$2 trillion valuation. Roadshow expected June 8, IPO mid-June. Buried in the filing: 18,712 BTC worth $1.45 billion — one of the largest corporate Bitcoin treasuries in the world.

Why it matters: Anyone buying SPCX on day one gets passive Bitcoin exposure. SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic together could absorb trillions in capital that might otherwise flow into crypto.

Source: SpaceX IPO filing sends space and satellite stocks soaring, reveals massive Bitcoin treasury — Crypto Briefing

Ethereum is down nearly 60% from its August 2025 peak — but transaction counts, TVL, and stablecoin activity are near all-time highs. Standard Chartered analyst Geoffrey Kendrick: "While the stock price was going the wrong way, everything inside the company was going the right way." Target: $4,000 by year-end, $40,000 by 2030. Ethereum holds 54% of all stablecoins and 60% of gross TVL.

Why it matters: Holding a $4,000 target through a 60% drawdown is conviction, not noise. The Amazon comparison is hard to dismiss.

Source: Standard Chartered compares Ethereum to Amazon during 2001 dot-com bubble burst — The Block

BTC ETFs lost over $1 billion last week, ETH funds shed $215 million. HYPE spot products from Bitwise and 21Shares attracted $72 million in their first week. HYPE is up 59% this month. XRP and SOL ETFs added $22 million and $15.6 million. "Capital has not left crypto uniformly. It is rotating toward newer narratives," said BRN's Timothy Misir.

Why it matters: For institutional allocators, the question is no longer just "how much crypto" — it is "which crypto."

Source: HYPE funds attract millions as investors dump bitcoin and ether ETFs — CoinDesk

Gustav Buder, Bybit's regional head for the Nordics, argued at NBC Stockholm that the existing monetary system is structurally incompatible with an AI-driven economy. A debt-creates-money system breaks down when AI sharply accelerates productivity growth. Bitcoin's fixed supply and open access means it does not need to be believed in — it needs only to prove itself against a system under structural pressure.

Why it matters: This is a macroeconomic argument, not a crypto-native one. Whether the existing monetary architecture can absorb AI-driven productivity growth is one of the most consequential open questions in finance.

Source: The Old Monetary System Won't Survive the AI Age — Kaupr

Firi delivered NOK 28 million in net profit for 2025 on NOK 228 million in revenue and NOK 9.2 billion in trading volume. 400,000 customers, growing outside the traditional crypto demographic. A Sweden country manager is already in place. CEO Thuc Hoang: "For the first time, more Norwegians under 40 own crypto than stocks."

Why it matters: Profitable two years running, MiCA-cleared, and expanding into Sweden — Firi is better positioned than most as the 30 June hard stop approaches. [TAG @Firi]

Source: Crypto exchange Firi posts NOK 28m profit and targets Sweden — Kaup

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A new episode drops each weekend — three episodes so far. Kaupr Weekly is Morten Myrstad's short, news-oriented podcast on the week's biggest stories in crypto and fintech.

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Wishing you a great Thursday — and welcome back on Friday morning for the next edition of Kaupr Today.

Best regards
Morten Myrstad
Founder & Editor