Good morning. Bitcoin is at its highest level since January, and the treasury firms are calling it a bull market. Traders are more cautious: much of the move came from squeezed shorts and fresh leverage.
💎 Bitcoin reaches $86,000 as shorts are squeezed
💎 Tom Lee says the bull market began in June
💎 Strategy buys bitcoin again after three weeks
💎 Securitize closes at a record after the SEC exemption
💎 Shopify opens checkout to Meta's Muse agent
🎧 Kaupr Weekly Episode 12 covers the tokenisation side of the story.
— Morten
Momentum returns, and so does leverage
Bitcoin clears $82,000 and traders eye $90,000
Bitcoin reached $86,000 on Monday, an eight-month high, after breaking a level that had capped it since August. About $750 million in short positions were liquidated on the way up. Futures open interest rose by roughly $2 billion, so fresh leverage is building. Nansen and Wintermute see $90,000 as the next test.
Why it matters: Analysts want spot and ETF buying to follow the derivatives. Without it, the move could reverse on higher yields or another geopolitical shock.
Source: Bitcoin could test $90,000 after shorts get squeezed, but traders warn leverage is building — CoinDesk
Four forces behind "crypto spring"
Bitcoin rose 5% on Monday to above $85,000, its first time at that level since late January. Business Insider points to four drivers: regulatory optimism, $593 million in ETF inflows on Thursday and Friday, falling oil and bond yields, and improving technical signals. Bitwise's Matt Hougan called it crypto spring.
Why it matters: The bullish case now rests on several factors at once. FxPro's chief market analyst still warns that the risk of sharp pullbacks remains.
Source: 'It's crypto spring': 4 reasons for bitcoin's surge above $85,000 — Business Insider via Yahoo Finance
The treasury firms call the turn
Tom Lee says the bull market began in late June
Bitmine bought 27,562 ETH last week and now holds 5.98 million, just over 4.9% of circulating supply. Chairman Tom Lee says a bull market started in late June, driven by a rotation from AI back to crypto, tokenisation and the end of the four-year cycle. He expects institutions to add exposure before year-end. (Source: press release)
Why it matters: The largest ether treasury is now close to its target of 5% of supply, with 85% of its holdings staked.
Source: 'Crypto bull market is underway,' Tom Lee says as Bitmine nears 5% Ethereum supply target with 27,562 ETH buy — The Block
Strategy is buying bitcoin again
Strategy bought 950 bitcoin for about $76 million last week, its first purchase since late August. The company now holds 846,000 BTC, worth around $71.9 billion and more than 4% of bitcoin's fixed supply. Michael Saylor teased the buy on Sunday with the words "a little more orange".
Why it matters: The largest corporate bitcoin holder is back in the market after a three-week pause.
Source: 'A little more orange': Strategy buys 950 bitcoin for $76 million, bringing total holdings to 846,000 BTC — The Block
Onchain stocks get a timetable
First tokenised stock venues could appear next quarter
SEC Crypto Task Force counsel Taylor Lindman expects firms to publish notices under the new exemption within the next quarter. Commissioner Hester Peirce said the caps on stocks and volume are high enough for viable businesses. Issuers get 30 days to object to third-party tokens, but Peirce expects broad support.
Why it matters: The notices will show who intends to run the first venues. Peirce calls the five-year relief a bridge to permanent rules, not the end point.
Source: First Tokenized Stock Venues Could Take Shape Next Quarter Under SEC's Innovation Exemption — Crypto in America
Securitize closed up 24.3% at $13.50 on Monday, an all-time high. Cantor Fitzgerald, whose SPAC took the company public in July, raised its price target to $21.20. Rosenblatt raised its target to $13. The company's second-quarter net loss widened to $21.7 million, while revenue fell 5%.
Why it matters: The market is pricing in the exemption before it shows up in revenue.
Source: Securitize (SECZ) Climbs to All-Time High on Tokenized Securities Go-Signal — Insider Monkey
Approved institutions can move stocks and ETFs from Alpaca to Ondo and receive tokens onchain, or redeem tokens for the shares. Until now, they had to put up separate cash to mint tokens. The service runs on Ethereum and BNB Chain. RWA.xyz ranks Ondo second to Securitize, with $3.63 billion distributed.
Why it matters: Minting against shares already held cuts the capital needed to build tokenised inventory, according to Ondo.
Source: Ondo lets institutions convert stocks directly into tokenized shares — Cointelegraph
Agents learn to pay
Shopify opens its stores to Meta's shopping agent
Shopify merchants are now discoverable and purchasable in Meta's Muse agent by default. Muse searches Shopify Catalog and completes checkout through the Universal Commerce Protocol, which Shopify built with Google. The buyer's stored credential is limited to a single purchase. Shopify Payments covered 68% of its $116 billion second-quarter volume.
Why it matters: Checkout is where agentic commerce turns into payments volume. IDC's Aaron Press says a smooth handoff from discovery to payment decides conversion.
Source: How Shopify and Meta are diving deeper into checkout — American Banker
Meta's Muse lifts Meta and the chipmakers
Meta rose 6.5% on Monday and the Nasdaq 100 gained 2.15%. Arm climbed 15%, Intel 13% and AMD 9%, as analysts argued that agents running in the background need more CPU power. Wells Fargo raised its Meta target to $796, citing record Muse downloads. Zuckerberg speaks at Meta Connect on Wednesday.
Why it matters: Investors are pricing agentic AI as a new product cycle. Wells Fargo calls Muse the transition from chatbots to consumer AI assistants.
Source: Meta AI agent 'Muse' triggers massive tech rally as chips and Wall Street soar — Investing.com
🎧 Did you catch — Kaupr Weekly Episode 12: Is finance finally going onchain?
The SEC is letting tokenised US stocks trade onchain for five years, with caps on volume and on how many stocks. Eleven minutes on that test, DTCC, DNB, Arc, Centiglobe and NBX.
KAUPR WEEKLY
Episode 12: Is finance finally going onchain?
Episode also available on Spotify · Apple Podcasts
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Wishing you a great Tuesday — and welcome back tomorrow morning for the next edition of Kaupr Daily.
Best regards Morten Myrstad Founder & Editor