Kaupr Today - Monday, June 29 2026
The world's most important financial institution just warned that the global economy is sitting on a pile of debt, AI-funded fragility and complacency. In crypto, the bill is already arriving — and Strategy's $13 billion paper loss is the most visible symptom.
Some of the stories in today's edition:
💎 BIS annual report: debt, AI and financial fragilities are raising global risks
💎 Strategy's valuation has fallen below the value of its Bitcoin holdings
💎 Strategy's $13 billion paper loss — bigger than Dogecoin's entire market cap
💎 Ripple CEO: "Team Michael Saylor wasn't focused on the right stuff"
💎 BIS: stablecoins fall short as money — and threaten emerging markets
💎 XRP investors capitulating at the fastest pace since 2022
💎 While Binance couldn't get a MiCA licence, a three-person Norwegian exchange did
And tomorrow: 250+ registered, 9 industry leaders — Kaupr's State of ETFs in the Nordics goes live at 11:00 CET. Scroll down for more information.
— Morten
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The risk picture is getting harder to ignore
BIS annual report: debt, the AI boom and financial fragilities are raising global risks
The Bank for International Settlements published its Annual Economic Report on Sunday, warning of strained fiscal positions, elevated asset valuations and a "new sovereign-financial stability nexus" driven by record public debt. The AI boom gets its own warning: its financing is increasingly reliant on debt and complex funding structures. BIS General Manager Pablo Hernandez de Cos called the message one of "urgency."
Why it matters: When the central bank for central banks says policymakers must act now and delay will make adjustments more costly, it sets the macro backdrop for every asset class — crypto included.
Grayscale pushes back on the 80% crash calls — Bitcoin's bottom hinges on the Fed and the CLARITY Act
Grayscale Head of Research Zach Pandl argues this cycle's drawdown is unlikely to match the 80% declines of prior bear markets, citing a more muted bull run and stickier institutional demand. Base case: CLARITY Act passes, Strategy stabilises, Fed holds — Bitcoin may already be near its low. Downside: all three go wrong and Bitcoin falls moderately further.
Why it matters: This is not a price call — it is a framework. Grayscale is naming the three variables that will determine whether crypto has found its floor or has further to fall.
Source: Grayscale pushes back on the 80% crash calls — says Bitcoin's bottom hinges on the Fed and CLARITY Act — Yahoo Finance / Stocktwits
Strategy and Saylor: when the machine starts running in reverse
Strategy's valuation has fallen below the value of its Bitcoin holdings
Strategy's enterprise mNAV has officially dropped below 1 for the first time — meaning the market now values the entire company at less than its Bitcoin holdings. With MSTR near $82, enterprise value sits at roughly $50.4 billion against $51.1 billion in BTC. Issuing new shares at these levels would be dilutive, cutting off the engine that has powered every Bitcoin purchase since 2020.
Why it matters: Strategy's model depended on trading at a premium to its Bitcoin holdings — that premium gave it cheap capital to buy more. Below mNAV 1, the flywheel inverts.
Source: Strategy's valuation has fallen below the value of its Bitcoin holdings — CoinDesk
Strategy is sitting on a $13 billion Bitcoin paper loss — bigger than the entire market cap of Dogecoin
Strategy holds roughly 844,000 BTC acquired at an average of $75,600. With Bitcoin near $60,000, the unrealised loss exceeds $13 billion — larger than the market caps of Dogecoin, Cardano and Chainlink. Under fair-value accounting rules, this flows directly through the income statement each quarter.
Why it matters: One public company's leveraged bet on a single asset has generated a paper loss bigger than most of crypto's top projects — a cautionary tale about what happens when conviction meets leverage in a bear market.
Source: Too big to fail: Strategy's $13 billion bitcoin paper loss alone dwarfs hundreds of prominent tokens — CoinDesk
Ripple CEO: "Team Michael Saylor wasn't focused on the right stuff — and that has hurt the overall market"
In a CNBC interview on Friday, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse called Strategy's STRC preferred stock trading 25% below its $100 par value a "damning indictment." "Financial engineering does not drive long-term value," he said — the lasting value of any digital asset comes from utility. He added he remains bullish on Bitcoin itself. (Source: CEO interview)
Why it matters: Garlinghouse is not disinterested — but his critique has teeth because the STRC discount is real. When how you hold Bitcoin starts to matter as much as whether you hold it, the market has entered a new phase.
BIS draws a line on stablecoins
BIS: stablecoins fall short as money — and "stablecoin dollarisation" threatens emerging markets
The BIS Annual Economic Report argues that stablecoins fail on four foundational properties of money: singleness, elasticity, interoperability and integrity. Even at $3 trillion in market value, the report finds the net effect on economic output slightly negative. It introduces "stablecoin dollarisation" as a specific risk — dollar-pegged tokens adopted in emerging economies that reshape capital flows and erode monetary sovereignty.
Why it matters: This is the BIS's clearest statement yet that stablecoins need to be brought inside the regulated monetary system, not simply regulated around the edges. Its preferred alternative — a "unified ledger" of tokenised central bank and commercial bank money — will shape policymaker thinking for the rest of 2026.
Source: BIS says stablecoins fall short as money, warns of emerging-market risks in annual report — The Block
Ripple and XRP: under pressure, but not without momentum
XRP investors are capitulating at the fastest pace since the 2022 crypto crash
XRP fell to $1.02 last week — its lowest since February — as a market-wide selloff prompted leveraged traders to exit. Glassnode data shows XRP's 90-day profit-to-loss ratio at 0.33, the weakest reading since August 2022, meaning investors are realising one unit of profit for every three units of losses.
Why it matters: Capitulation metrics at 2022 levels is a structural signal, not just a price dip. Recovery depends on whether spot demand can absorb the overhang from investors who bought higher and are looking to exit on any rebound.
Source: XRP investors capitulate at fastest pace since the 2022 crypto crash amid slide to $1 — CryptoSlate
Caleb & Brown integrates Ripple Payments for faster USD withdrawals
Australian crypto brokerage Caleb & Brown — managing over $2 billion in digital assets — has integrated Ripple Payments into its fiat transfer infrastructure, enabling faster USD withdrawals for clients. The integration uses XRP as a bridge asset in select payment corridors. (Source: press release)
Why it matters: While XRP's price is under pressure, its payments utility is advancing. A $2 billion brokerage embedding Ripple Payments for USD settlement is a concrete sign that the use-case Garlinghouse is defending is actually being built.
Source: Caleb & Brown adds Ripple Payments for faster USD withdrawals — Bitcoin.com (Source: press release)
While Binance couldn't get a licence, a three-person Norwegian exchange just did
Torkel Rogstad, CEO and co-founder in Bare Bitcoin
Bare Bitcoin — a Norwegian bitcoin-only exchange with three employees — received its MiCA licence from Finanstilsynet on Friday, just days before the July 1 deadline. Co-founder Torkel Rogstad told Kaupr the licence is both a mark of trust and a matter of survival: without it, the company would have had to shut down.
Why it matters: MiCA is not reserved for institutions. Rogstad praised Finanstilsynet's pragmatism while criticising MiCA's structural flaw: one common rulebook implemented by 27 different authorities, with wildly inconsistent results.
📅 Kaupr Event — State of ETFs in the Nordics: Digital Assets & Regulated Products | June 30, 11:00–13:00 CET
More than 250 have already registered for tomorrow's virtual event, where nine senior voices from the ETF and crypto industry take stock of the Nordic digital-asset ETP and ETF market — built around the wealth management, family office, private banking and institutional investor perspective.
Read more: More than 250 registered for Nordic ETF and crypto event — Kaupr
Speakers: Alex Pollak (21Shares) · Christopher Kock (Virtune) · Håkon Holm Østvedt (Nasdaq) · Jacob Lindberg (Valour) · James Butterfill (CoinShares) · Joachim Wegebrand (Nordnet) · Marco Poblete (Bitwise) · Markus Thomas (Xenix) · Martin Leinweber (MarketVector Indexes)
Host and moderator: Morten Myrstad
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Wishing you a great Monday — and welcome back tomorrow morning for the next edition of Kaupr Today.
Best regards
Morten Myrstad
Founder & Editor