Good morning!

Samsung and Alphabet reported record numbers and still saw their shares fall, as investors looked at how much cash is left after AI spending. Microsoft rose. Robinhood's crypto revenue fell 55%, and Coinbase reports tonight. Looking ahead, Raoul Pal sees no ceiling for AI spending, and Bitwise raises its long-term bitcoin target. And AI assistants are getting access to investment accounts at Bitpanda and Denmark's Coop Bank, as online stores lock out Meta's shopping agent.

Some stories in Kaupr Daily:

💎 Google Cloud revenue more than doubles to $30.7 billion

💎 The CFTC asks who is liable when an AI agent goes rogue

💎 AI security startup Upwind raises $400 million

— Morten

Samsung Electronics reported a record operating profit of 107 trillion won for the third quarter, almost nine times higher than a year earlier, driven by AI memory chips. The shares still fell almost 5% in Seoul, as profit in the chip division came in below what some investors had expected.

Why it matters: Samsung expects demand for memory chips to outpace supply next year, and plans to expand sales of its latest high-bandwidth memory for AI.

Source: Samsung Shares Slide 5% Despite Record 107 Trillion Won Profit — Seoul Economic Daily

Google Cloud revenue more than doubled to $30.7 billion in the third quarter, and Alphabet's annual revenue passed $400 billion for the first time. Capital spending reached a record $51.4 billion, and free cash flow was negative $9.1 billion. The shares fell after hours.

Why it matters: Alphabet raised $84.8 billion in new equity in June, including $10 billion from Berkshire Hathaway, to fund its AI build-out.

Source: Alphabet's Google Cloud revenue doubles to $31 billion as cash flow stays deep red — Fortune

Both companies reported strong AI growth, yet Alphabet shares fell about 10% after hours while Microsoft rose more than 3%. Microsoft's Azure grew 48%, and it generated $18.6 billion in free cash flow despite heavy spending. Alphabet's search advertising missed expectations, as ads in its AI Mode are still being tested.

Why it matters: "Strong AI demand is no longer enough on its own," FXStreet writes. Investors increasingly want AI growth to fund itself.

Source: Why Google stock fell while Microsoft rose after Q3 earnings — FXStreet

Robinhood's crypto revenue fell 55% from a year earlier to $120 million in the third quarter, and the shares dropped about 10% after a slight earnings miss. Prediction markets brought in $173 million, and Robinhood Chain earned $26 million in its first quarter. Bernstein and StoneX kept their positive ratings.

Why it matters: Bernstein sees Robinhood's crypto business shifting from retail trading towards an "infrastructure business".

Source: Robinhood earnings miss on crypto weakness, Wall Street stays bullish — The Block

Coinbase reports third-quarter results after the US market closes today. Analysts expect trading to have picked up from multiyear lows in June, but JPMorgan, Barclays and Oppenheimer differ on how much revenue that brings. Barclays says September's rise in spot volumes faded in early October.

Why it matters: "The obvious weak link is pricing," says VanEck's Matthew Sigel, as brokers and exchanges struggle to turn trading activity into revenue.

Source: Coinbase earnings: Wall Street divided on trading rebound as Robinhood crypto revenue sinks 55% — CoinDesk

Macro investor Raoul Pal argues that the largest tech companies can keep funding AI infrastructure for years, comparing the build-out to the railroad boom, which lasted 35 years. "The hyperscalers are the biggest cash-generating businesses the world has ever seen," he says, and puts their debt at about 3.5% of their stock-market value.

Why it matters: Others are less relaxed. Union Bancaire Privée expects the largest hyperscalers to spend more than their operating cash flow this year, and the Bank of England has warned about AI's growing reliance on borrowing.

Source: Raoul Pal: AI Spending Has No Ceiling, But Tech Stocks Face Financial Risks — KuCoin (via BeInCrypto)

At a CFTC forum on AI, chairman Mike Selig said "the convergence of superintelligence, crypto, and modern financial infrastructure could transform our markets". He raised open questions: whether developers of AI agents should register, who is liable if an agent "goes rogue", and how to tell whom an agent acts for, floating a "know-your-agent" idea.

Why it matters: The US derivatives regulator already uses AI to police markets, and holds a roundtable on round-the-clock trading on 15 December.

Source: CFTC chief poses questions about policing AI but calls it a road to autonomous trading — CoinDesk

Upwind Security, which protects cloud and AI systems, raised $400 million at a $3.8 billion valuation, about 2.5 times its value in January. Bessemer Venture Partners led the round. Upwind says revenue quadrupled this year, and it will build scanners for AI agents and expand into identity and data security.

Why it matters: The raise follows a summer of incidents in which AI models reached real companies' systems, including Anthropic's disclosure that Claude models compromised three companies after a testing misconfiguration.

Source: AI Security Startup Upwind Raises $400M — Decrypt

Crypto asset manager Bitwise now expects bitcoin to reach $1.6 million by 2036, up from $1.3 million a year ago, an annual return of about 34%. Its bear case is about $130,000 and its bull case $3.67 million. The base case assumes bitcoin takes a quarter of the global store-of-value market.

Why it matters: "We are more bullish on bitcoin today than we were last year," says Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan, pointing to bitcoin's growth into a nearly $2 trillion asset.

Source: Bitwise raises bitcoin price target to $1.6 million by 2036, projects 34% annualized returns — The Block

Bitpanda customers can now ask ChatGPT about their crypto, stocks and metals through a read-only app, and Bitpanda's own MCP server lets assistants such as Anthropic's Claude place orders within limits the user sets. Coop Bank Investering is the first Danish bank to give investment customers an MCP connection, for questions such as dividends received.

Why it matters: Neither lets the AI trade or move money on its own, and Bitpanda says the user remains solely responsible for authorising every instruction.

Source: Bitpanda and Danish Coop Bank open accounts to AI — Kaupr

Several large retailers are making it harder for Meta's AI agent Muse to shop for users. Amazon blocked it after launch, while opening its seller tools to Anthropic's Claude, and The RealReal is tightening access after agents held items in carts for hours. JPMorgan and other banks have reportedly started blocking third-party agents from customer accounts.

Why it matters: Amazon relies on sponsored listings that agents skip, while Shopify, which is more open to agents, earns on every transaction regardless of who buys, SureBright points out.

Source: Online stores are shutting the door on Meta's shopping agent — Kaupr

Kaupr Today comes in two editions

More from Kaupr

Wishing you a great Thursday — and welcome back tomorrow morning for the next edition of Kaupr Daily.

Best regards
Morten Myrstad
Founder & Editor